Reading RKDA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RKDA free→
ARCADIA BIOSCIENCES INC (RKDA)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$0.85-7.25%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, RKDA trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 68% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Market cap
- $1.77M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2015-02-17
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$1.73consensus
Range $1.73 – $1.73
vs price: -51% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$0.77consensus
Range $0.77 – $0.77
vs price: +10% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $0.85 RKDA trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $1.69 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.4x
peer 0.8x · own history —
Premium
0.5x peer
Growth the price needs
-68%
our forecast -33%
Our fair value
$1.69
range $1.69 – $1.69
WhyEarnings too small for P/EPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 68% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -33%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
8th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.45x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Mature by revenue growth · theme private-label/value.headwind-9.8%sector vs S&P 500, 60d
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifierLong-term · 1–3 yr
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$287.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,096.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,446.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-125d agoInvesting.com
Advances: Improve financial performance
Funding improves financial performance and supports growth initiatives.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for changes in consumer spending trends post-FOMC meeting
- Watch for Consumer Staples revenue growth to speed up above 5%.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and HRL keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Staples sector momentum should keep lifting RKDA and other Consumer Staples names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If RKDA beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2025-09-30 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for RKDA and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If inflation reaccelerates, say headline CPI back above 3.5% (currently 2.8%), that would benefit RKDA and other Consumer Staples names (the sector typically holds up well in inflationary environments).
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and HRL start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Staples tailwind helping RKDA and other Consumer Staples names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-152d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 11, 2026, Arcadia Biosciences, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with an institutional accredited investor (the “Purchaser”) for the sale and issuance in a private placement (the “Private Placement”) of (i) pre-funded warrants (the "Pre-Funded Warrants") to purchase up to 3,883,496 shares (“Pre-Funded Warrant Shares”) of common stock of the Company (“Common Stock”), (ii) Series A-1 p…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.