Reading RILY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RILY free→Reading RILY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RILY free→NASDAQFinancialsFinancial ConglomeratesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, RILY is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 88% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues due to weak recent financials or fragile earnings quality. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.00. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.16 RILY trades at 0× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $76 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 88% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 66%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated fragile grew net income 49% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$305.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$845.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,060.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows BRC, Inc. is managing costs well. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by more than 5% from Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or stays the same from Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RILY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
or its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed May 7, 2026, exceeds 5% of the Company’s total number of shares of common stock (“Common Stock”) outstanding as of May 5, 2026. On May 14, 2026 and June 4, 2026, the Company issued shares of Common Stock in privately negotiated transactions (together, the “ 3(a)(9) Exchanges ”) that were not registered under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “ Securities Act ”). On May 14, 2026, the Company agreed to issue 1,129,918 shares of Common Stock to DBA Tradin…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Financials (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RILY BRC, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 75 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
BRK-B Berkshire Hathaway | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | moderate |
JPM JPMorgan Chase | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | low |
V Visa Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | low |
MA Mastercard | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | low |
28 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated volatile grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3774).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -57.8% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Aim to improve EPS through strategic financial management and operational efficiency.
Why it matters: Updates on capital allocation can impact share value and investor sentiment. It’s important to see how funds are used.
Confirms one read:Management shares a new plan for spending money. Investors are happy with it.
Confirms the other:Management does not share updates. They give bad news about spending money.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth signals a potential slowdown for BRC, Inc. It could affect their growth plans.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays at or above 15% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026 , BRC Group Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information set forth in this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exc…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 31, 2026 , BRC Group Holdings, Inc. (f/k/a B. Riley Financial, Inc.) (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the fiscal quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information set forth in this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Secur…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (f) On February 10, 2026, the Company filed a Registration Statement on Form S-1 (File No. 333-293348) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “ Registration Statement ”). Pursuant to Instruction 1 to Item 402(c)(2)(iv) of Regulation S-K, the Company omitted from the Summary Compensation Table included in the Registration Statement 2025 bo…
or its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed January 14, 2026, exceeds 5% of the number of shares of common stock outstanding as of January 9, 2026. From February 6, 2026 through March 12, 2026, the Company issued or agreed to issue the securities described below in privately negotiated transactions (together, the “ 3(a)(9) Exchanges ”) that were not registered under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “ Securities Act ”). Such issuances are exempt from registration under Section 3(a)(9) of the Sec…