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Redwire Corp. (RDW)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$14.81-2.05%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed, and it is also capital unfriendly. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. If RDW cuts guidance on the next call, that could have a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- Market cap
- $2.85B
- Employees
- 1,410
- IPO date
- 2020-09-25
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$13.35consensus
Range $13.35 – $13.35
vs price: +2% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$20.99consensus
Range $20.99 – $20.99
vs price: -35% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $15 RDW trades at 4× p/s, in line with its 3× p/s peer median. Our $14 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $12–$24. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
3.6x
peer 3.5x · own history —
Premium
1.0x peer
Growth the price needs
5%
our forecast 42%
Our fair value
$14.15
range $14.15 – $14.15
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 5% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 42%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
17th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.46x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised +6.3% / 30d, n=1for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.16 → $-0.15 (+6.3% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 73% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -2.3% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$484.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,147.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,540.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for revenue growth target progress towards $450M to $500M
Why it matters: This target is key for Redwire's growth story. Meeting it shows strong demand.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Quarterly revenue reports show growth on track to meet or exceed $450M.
Disproves:Quarterly revenue is under $400M. This shows weak demand.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RDW yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting RDW and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If RDW raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If RDW cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping RDW and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits RDW and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-098d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On June 9, 2026, Redwire Corporation (the “Company”), entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement (the “June 2026 ATM Agreement”) by and between the Company, Truist Securities, Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., TCBI Securities, Inc., doing business as Texas Capital Securities, A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners, B. Riley Securities, Inc., Canaccord Genuity LLC, H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and Roth Ca…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.