Redwire Corp. (RDW)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-29
$9.16+1.66%
Close 2026-10-29 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put RDW beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Aerospace & Defense is in expansion. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 63% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 15%, softest on share dilution.
View QualityManagement screens weak on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 3% on a typical day and fell roughly 70% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskRDW’s growth case rests on rapid revenue expansion, though unprofitability and weak performance make execution central. Revenue grew 89.6% year over year in Q2 FY2026, and adjusted earnings beat consensus. RDW trades at 5× sales versus a 3× peer median, despite its own 5× historical multiple. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, but that premium still needs support. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 24%. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades; our read remains intact, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-29. RDW is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 11 analysts currently covering RDW (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 5 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for RDW in the last 4 months.
Continue this research
Compare RDW with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDW Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Aerospace & Defense — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put RDW next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Achieve 2026 revenue target of $450M to $500M
Record quarter indicates potential revenue growth issues.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-29. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $9.16
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $9.16.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Advances: Revenue growth target of $450M to $500M for 2026
Winning a NATO contract supports revenue growth objectives.