Redwire Corp. (RDW)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$8.36+2.70%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Redwire Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	135.78M
EPS	—	-0.107
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	475.34M
EPS	—	-0.753
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	564.42M
EPS	—	-0.344

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage debt and financial obligations without distress	A supporting condition in Redwire Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is No new material financial distress or defaults.	Under Pressure	New material financial obligations or defaults occur	New material financial obligations (ATM, Credit Amendment) vs No distress target Company entered a new Equity Distribution Agreement (ATM) and amended its credit agreement in June 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Reduction in net losses and negative EPS	A primary condition in Redwire Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows toward -$0.41 or better by FY27.	Improving	EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.68 in FY26 or fails to improve in FY27	Diluted EPS: $-0.19 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows toward -$0.41 or better by FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026-0.19 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9afd20c9-44e0-4b65-95f1-6434045929b5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue between $450M and $500M for FY26	Redwire aims for revenue between $450M and $500M in 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $450 million in FY26	Revenue: $117.074M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $450 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026117,074,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9afd20c9-44e0-4b65-95f1-6434045929b5. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$-0.34

Unavailable → $-0.34 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.56B

$0.57B → $0.56B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$565,873,990	1 / 8
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$565,873,990	1 / 8
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$565,873,990	1 / 8
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$565,873,990	1 / 8
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$565,873,990	1 / 8
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$565,873,990	1 / 8
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$569,054,500	4 / 6
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$565,873,990	1 / 8
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$569,054,500	4 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$569,054,500	4 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$565,873,990	1 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$565,873,990	1 / 8
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$569,054,500	4 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$569,011,490	1 / 8
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$562,400,620	1 / 8
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$562,400,620	1 / 8
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$562,400,620	1 / 8
2026-08-12	$-0.39	$559,832,850	7 / 7
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$569,975,286	4 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$569,975,286	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$569,975,286	4 / 6
2026-08-16	$-0.51	$569,975,286	6 / 5
2026-08-17	$-0.51	$569,975,286	6 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$569,975,286	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$569,975,286	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$562,816,429	4 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$564,830,714	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$564,830,714	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$564,830,714	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$564,830,714	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$564,845,000	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$564,845,000	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$564,845,000	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$564,845,000	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$564,845,000	4 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$564,845,000	4 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$564,077,380	4 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$564,077,380	4 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$564,077,380	4 / 6
2026-09-03	$-0.36	$564,077,380	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$-0.36	$564,077,380	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$-0.36	$564,077,380	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$-0.36	$564,077,380	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$-0.36	$564,077,380	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$-0.36	$564,077,380	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$-0.36	$564,077,380	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$-0.36	$564,077,380	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$-0.36	$564,078,755	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$-0.36	$564,078,755	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$-0.36	$564,078,755	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$-0.36	$564,078,755	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$-0.36	$564,078,755	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-24	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-25	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-26	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-27	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-28	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-29	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-09-30	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-10-01	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-10-02	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-10-03	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-10-04	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-10-05	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-10-06	$-0.34	$563,903,338	5 / 6
2026-10-07	$-0.34	$563,946,560	5 / 6
2026-10-08	$-0.34	$563,946,560	5 / 6
2026-10-09	$-0.34	$563,946,560	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$-0.34	$563,946,560	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$-0.34	$563,946,560	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$-0.34	$563,946,560	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$-0.34	$563,946,560	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$-0.34	$563,946,560	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$-0.34	$563,946,560	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$-0.34	$564,421,504	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$-0.34	$564,421,504	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$-0.34	$564,421,504	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$-0.34	$564,421,504	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$-0.34	$564,421,504	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$-0.34	$564,421,504	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$-0.34	$564,421,504	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$-0.34	$564,421,504	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$-0.34	$564,421,504	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	8	1	1
2026-06-01	8	2	1
2026-07-01	7	2	1
2026-08-01	6	2	1
2026-09-01	6	3	1
2026-10-01	6	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 15

$11.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$6.05$12.10

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage debt and financial obligations without distressPublished status: Under Pressure
Reduction in net losses and negative EPSDiluted EPS: $-0.19 per share
Revenue between $450M and $500M for FY26Revenue: $117.074M

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-70.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Redwire Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a turnaround situation with a medium confidence level. The company is currently loss-making and has volatile management, which adds to the uncertainty of its recovery trajectory.

What's priced into Redwire Corp.

The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, reflecting a durable premium compared to peers. However, there is a significant expectations gap, indicating that investors may be cautious about future performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain weak in the near term, as recent earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down. Management is focused on achieving revenue targets and improving liquidity, which may help stabilize the business.

What Redwire Corp. hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable environment for RDW. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could further pressure RDW's performance.