Reading RCAT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RCAT free→Reading RCAT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track RCAT free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 640% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. Key factors to watch include whether RCAT cuts guidance on the next call, which could have a meaningful negative impact, and the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX, which could influence RCAT's momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12, RCAT's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 27× p/s (7.7× the 3× p/s peer median). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $1.56 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 667% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.39x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $-0.17. 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 88.6% above current price.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$509.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$1,107.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,008.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show if Red Cat's financial struggles are improving or worsening.
Confirms:Earnings report shows a smaller loss than the previous quarter.
Disproves:Earnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for RCAT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. Share Purchase Agreement with respect to the acquisition of all the shares in the capital of Quaze Technologies, Inc. On May 19, 2026 (the “Closing Date”), Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), a U.S.-based provider of advanced all-domain drone and robotic solutions for defense and national security, completed its acquisition of Quaze Technologies Inc., a corporation formed under the laws of Quebec (“Quaze”), pursuant to the previously ann…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
RCAT Red Cat Holdings, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 4 of 100 | expensive | high |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on strategic acquisitions to enhance product offerings and market reach.
Aim to reach annual revenues between $150 million and $180 million by the end of 2026.
Focus on enhancing gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Why it matters: If the sector shows renewed growth, it may help Red Cat's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release and will hold a conference call regarding its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information furnished with this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”)…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 12, 2026, Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “ Underwriting Agreement ”) with Evercore Group L.L.C. and BofA Securities, Inc., as representatives of the underwriters named therein (the “ Underwriters ”), related to the offer and sale of shares of the Company’s common stock (the “ Offering ”). The Underwriting Agreement provides for the offer and sale by the Company, and the purchase by the Und…
The Company delivered the Closing Shares as closing consideration for the Acquisition on the Closing Date. The issuance of the Closing Shares was not registered under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”) or any state securities laws, and the Closing Shares may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act and applicable state securities laws. The Closing Shares were issued in a p…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Share Purchase Agreement with respect to the acquisition of all the shares in the capital of Quaze Technologies, Inc. On March 30, 2026, Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), a U.S.-based provider of advanced all-domain drone and robotic solutions for defense and national security, entered into a Share Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with 9563-4747 Quebec Inc., a corporation formed under the laws of Quebec and a direct wholly-owned s…