Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT)

Q: What's priced into Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) stock?

RCAT is expensive versus peers, with valuation supported mainly by the possibility of future growth. The evidence labels the pricing unjustified, although overall fragility is low because the valuation concern is not paired with the full set of weak and turbulent conditions.

Q: What does the Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) outlook hinge on?

The multi-year case depends on whether RCAT can scale revenue toward its 2026 goal and sustain gross-margin improvement. Near-term execution and guidance are key swing factors, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers SPCX, GE, and RTX could signal whether the broader Industrials backdrop is helping or weakening.

NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$4.43+1.37%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Red Cat Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	37.49M
EPS	—	-0.192
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	152.09M
EPS	—	0.11

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Expand product offerings and market reach through acquisitions	The company is expanding through acquisitions to boost its drone defense portfolio.	Intact	no meaningful acquisitions completed in FY26	Acquisition announced vs FY26 target News confirms Red Cat's cash tender offer for Steyr Motors, advancing the acquisition-led growth objective. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Revenue increased from $15.471 million in 2026-Q1 to $20.189 million in 2026-Q2, and Red Cat completed its Quaze acquisition during the quarter. The acquisition is a specific strategic action; its contribution to financial results is not separately quantified in the supplied data. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve gross profit margins via operational efficiencies	Gross profit improved to $1.97M in 2026-Q1, showing margin progress.	Broken	gross profit falls below $1.97M quarterly	Gross profit: $3.26M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross profit >= $1.97M quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20263,260,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 2 of the 2 supplied transcript quarters. Gross profit rose from $1.965 million in 2026-Q1 to $3.260 million in 2026-Q2. This is substantive improvement in gross profit, consistent with the margin improvement management reported; the trajectory is delivering in the supplied quarters. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve revenue between $150M and $180M in 2026	A primary condition in Red Cat Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $150M and <= $180M total revenue.	Intact	annual revenue falls below $150M in FY26	Revenue: $20.189M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $150M and <= $180M total revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202620,189,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · alphavantage

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.22B

$0.22B → $0.22B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · alphavantage
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-06-09	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-10	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-13	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-16	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-18	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-20	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-21	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-23	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-24	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-25	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-27	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-28	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-01	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-02	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-03	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-04	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-07	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$219,186,940	2 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	5	0
2026-06-01	6	0
2026-07-01	6	0
2026-08-01	7	0
2026-09-01	7	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 23 · prior Sep 2

$9.00 → $6.00-33.3%

$0$4.95$9.90

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve gross profit margins via operational efficienciesPublished status: Broken
Achieve revenue between $150M and $180M in 2026Revenue: $20.189M

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-74.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Red Cat Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a speculative growth story, not yet a proven compounder, because it remains loss-making and faces high risk. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent momentum improved, but recent financial performance remains well below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Red Cat Holdings, Inc.

RCAT is expensive versus peers, with valuation supported mainly by the possibility of future growth. The evidence labels the pricing unjustified, although overall fragility is low because the valuation concern is not paired with the full set of weak and turbulent conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

In the near term, the risk of another earnings miss is elevated after a run of misses, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback. In the supplied 2026 quarters, revenue rose from $15.471 million to $20.189 million and gross profit increased, while management reaffirmed its $150 million to $180 million 2026 revenue goal; delivering that annual goal remains unproven. An acquisition and a divestiture were announced on October 23, but the evidence does not describe their expected financial effects.

What Red Cat Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year case depends on whether RCAT can scale revenue toward its 2026 goal and sustain gross-margin improvement. Near-term execution and guidance are key swing factors, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers SPCX, GE, and RTX could signal whether the broader Industrials backdrop is helping or weakening.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, RCAT’s improving operating figures and stated growth goals support the thesis, but losses, repeated earnings misses, and an expensive valuation leave execution as the central test. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	37.49M
EPS	—	-0.192
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	152.09M
EPS	—	0.11

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · alphavantage

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.22B

$0.22B → $0.22B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · alphavantage
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-06-09	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-10	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-13	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-16	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-18	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-20	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-21	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-23	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-24	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-25	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-27	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-06-28	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-01	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-02	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-03	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-04	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-07	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$221,052,760	1 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$220,721,780	1 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$221,982,700	2 / 7
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$219,186,940	2 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings