Reading PSN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PSN free→Reading PSN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PSN free→NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 54% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of key bellwethers in the Industrials sector. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $55.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $56 PSN trades at 17× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median. Our $120 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 54% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.13x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.81 → $0.76 (-6.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 12 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.1% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$363.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,541.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 15, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk rose, indicating a higher level of uncertainty. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, which could impact performance. Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, suggesting stability in those areas.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims can show the health of the economy. A rise may hurt demand for Parsons' services.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims fall below 250,000.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PSN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, Parson Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and certain other financial information. A copy of the press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PSN Parsons Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Maintain the revenue guidance range of $6.5 billion to $6.8 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Maintain the free cash flow guidance range of $470 million to $530 million for fiscal year 2026.
Maintain the adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $615 million to $675 million for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue potential. It shows demand for Parsons' services.
Confirms:Total backlog grows beyond $9.3 billion in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Total backlog declines below $9.3 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A higher margin shows better efficiency and more profit. This supports a positive outlook.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA margin is over 10.1% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 10.1% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Winning large contracts shows the company's competitive strength and growth potential. It boosts future revenue.
Confirms:Parsons wins more than four contracts worth over $100 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Parsons wins fewer than four contracts worth over $100 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Reiterating revenue guidance shows confidence in growth. It affects investor trust.
Confirms:Management says FY 2026 revenue guidance stays the same in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers FY 2026 revenue guidance during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Restating free cash flow guidance shows strong cash generation. This comforts investors.
Confirms:Management says FY 2026 free cash flow guidance stays the same in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management lowers FY 2026 free cash flow guidance during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: This growth would confirm the company's ability to meet its fiscal year guidance. It shows demand in key markets is strong.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 4.5% year-over-year.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue growth is below 4.5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a recovery in the industrial sector. This would be positive for Parsons.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the industrial sector rises back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth stays below 8%.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 17, 2026, Susan Balaguer, the Chief Human Resources Officer (“CHRO”) of Parsons Corporation (the “Corporation”) announced her retirement as CHRO, effective April 1, 2026. Ms. Balaguer will remain with the Corporation in an advisory role for a transition period through the end of May 2026. The Board of Directors of the Corporation has appro…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 20, 2026, in recognition of Carey A. Smith’s performance as the Corporation’s Chief Executive Officer and the importance of retaining Ms. Smith as the Company’s CEO, the Board of Directors of Parsons Corporation approved a stock award with a target grant-date value of $10 million, consisting of a mix of 60% performance stock units (PSUs…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, Parson Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025 and certain other financial information. A copy of the press release is attached to this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1