Parsons Corporation (PSN)
NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$46.29-2.73%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Generate free cash flow near $500 million in fiscal 2026: FCF guidance $430M-$490M vs ~$500M target.
Parsons keeps its 2026 revenue guidance near $6.65 billion. Free cash flow is expected around $500 million. New contracts in infrastructure and defense support growth. Profit margins stay stable near current levels.
Revenue and profit margins could fall below guidance. Free cash flow might stay negative longer. Competition or project delays could hurt growth.
The price is about 44% below our fair value near $101. Analysts expect about 9% revenue growth, which we agree with.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $600 million in FY26
Maintain fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance with updated ranges reflecting portfolio actions and operational performance.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround opportunity. The current thesis state is mixed, as management has lowered guidance while maintaining focus on revenue and cash flow.
The market appears to have priced in a neutral valuation, with PSN being seen as cheap compared to its peers. There is a notable expectations gap, suggesting that some negative developments are already reflected in the current valuation.
Fundamentals may remain under pressure in the near term due to elevated risk and a recent earnings miss. Management's mixed guidance updates indicate a cautious approach, which could impact performance.
The thesis hinges on whether PSN can reverse its recent guidance cuts and if sector leaders continue to perform well. Any shifts in the performance of key competitors could significantly influence PSN's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change indicates the reason to own PSN has weakened. Additionally, the latest earnings report showed a significant miss, further impacting the outlook.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Reiterated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was initially set at $615 million - $675 million in 2025-Q4, reiterated in 2026-Q1, then updated downward to $500 million - $560 million in 2026-Q2 due to portfolio-shaping charges and operational impacts. The trajectory shows management maintaining this guidance priority with a recent downward revision.
“Updating fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $500 million - $560 million.”
“Reiterating fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges.”
“Establishing fiscal year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $615 million - $675 million.”
Breaks if: No significant new contracts announced in next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $470 million in FY26
Breaks if: Annual revenue falls below $6.4 billion in FY26
Maintain fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance with updated ranges reflecting portfolio-shaping and organic growth.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance was initially set at $6.5 billion - $6.8 billion in 2025-Q4, reiterated in 2026-Q1, then updated downward to $6.2 billion - $6.5 billion in 2026-Q2 reflecting portfolio-shaping actions and market conditions. The trajectory shows management maintaining focus on revenue guidance with a recent downward revision.
“The company is updating its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance ranges.”
“Reiterating fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance ranges.”
“Establishing fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance of $6.5 billion - $6.8 billion.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PSN's outlook will depend on management's ability to stabilize performance amid sector challenges. Not investment advice.