Parsons Corporation (PSN)

NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$49.04+2.59%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Parsons Corporation’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.9%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.39 → 3.42 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	1.67B
EPS	—	0.882
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$6.2B–$6.5B	6.36B
EPS	—	2.444
EBITDA	$500M–$560Mnon-GAAP	—
Operating cash flow	$430M–$490M	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.73B
EPS	—	3.42

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain adjusted EBITDA near $645 million in fiscal 2026	A supporting condition in Parsons Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is ~$645 million.	Broken	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $600 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Reiterated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was initially set at $615 million - $675 million in 2025-Q4, reiterated in 2026-Q1, then updated downward to $500 million - $560 million in 2026-Q2 due to portfolio-shaping charges and operational impacts. The trajectory shows management maintaining this guidance priority with a recent downward revision. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Secure new contracts to support revenue growth	New contracts in infrastructure and defense support growth.	Intact	No significant new contracts announced in next 4 quarters	Qualitative: Strong contract wins (e.g., $14B missile contract) vs. target of sustained wins Parsons secured a $14B missile contract and other major deals, reinforcing backlog growth and meeting the qualitative contract win target. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Generate free cash flow near $500 million in fiscal 2026	Free cash flow is expected around $500 million.	Broken	Free cash flow falls below $470 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $41.452M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$500 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202641,452,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating cash flow guidance was initially set at $470 million - $530 million in 2025-Q4, reiterated in 2026-Q1, then updated downward to $430 million - $490 million in 2026-Q2 reflecting cash flow impacts from portfolio-shaping and investments. The trajectory shows management maintaining focus on cash flow guidance with a recent downward revision. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain fiscal year 2026 revenue near $6.65 billion	Parsons keeps its 2026 revenue guidance near $6.65 billion.	Broken	Annual revenue falls below $6.4 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.576B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$6.65 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20261,575,867,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: d06e05cb-2b00-4e31-adb4-55043cc17445. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance was initially set at $6.5 billion - $6.8 billion in 2025-Q4, reiterated in 2026-Q1, then updated downward to $6.2 billion - $6.5 billion in 2026-Q2 reflecting portfolio-shaping actions and market conditions. The trajectory shows management maintaining focus on revenue guidance with a recent downward revision. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.42

$3.69 → $3.42 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$6.73B

$7.15B → $6.73B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.69	$7,153,772,290	14 / 12
2026-07-25	$3.69	$7,153,772,290	14 / 12
2026-07-26	$3.69	$7,153,772,290	14 / 12
2026-07-27	$3.69	$7,134,712,883	9 / 9
2026-07-28	$3.69	$7,153,772,290	14 / 12
2026-07-29	$3.69	$7,153,772,290	14 / 12
2026-07-30	$3.69	$7,134,712,883	9 / 9
2026-07-31	$3.50	$6,852,811,610	14 / 12
2026-08-01	$3.49	$6,831,763,868	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$3.49	$6,825,594,190	14 / 12
2026-08-03	$3.49	$6,825,594,190	14 / 12
2026-08-04	$3.49	$6,831,763,868	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$3.49	$6,831,763,868	8 / 9
2026-08-06	$3.49	$6,831,763,868	8 / 9
2026-08-07	$3.42	$6,737,909,784	8 / 9
2026-08-08	$3.42	$6,723,918,440	14 / 12
2026-08-09	$3.42	$6,737,909,784	8 / 9
2026-08-10	$3.42	$6,723,918,440	14 / 12
2026-08-12	$3.42	$6,737,909,784	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$3.42	$6,737,909,784	8 / 9
2026-08-14	$3.42	$6,737,909,784	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$3.42	$6,737,909,784	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$3.42	$6,737,909,784	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$3.42	$6,737,909,784	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$3.42	$6,737,909,784	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$3.42	$6,737,909,784	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$3.39	$6,723,885,599	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$3.39	$6,723,885,599	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$3.39	$6,723,644,774	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$3.39	$6,723,644,774	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$3.39	$6,723,644,774	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$3.39	$6,723,258,769	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$3.39	$6,723,258,769	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$3.39	$6,723,258,769	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$3.39	$6,723,258,769	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$3.39	$6,723,258,769	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$3.39	$6,723,661,935	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$3.39	$6,723,644,774	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$3.40	$6,724,403,107	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$3.42	$6,729,195,212	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-10	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-11	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-12	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-13	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-14	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-15	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-16	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-17	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-18	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-19	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-20	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-21	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-22	$3.42	$6,728,436,879	7 / 9
2026-10-23	$3.42	$6,728,445,212	7 / 9
2026-10-24	$3.42	$6,728,445,212	7 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	5
2026-06-01	9	5
2026-07-01	9	5
2026-08-01	11	5
2026-09-01	11	3
2026-10-01	11	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain adjusted EBITDA near $645 million in fiscal 2026Published status: Broken
Generate free cash flow near $500 million in fiscal 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain fiscal year 2026 revenue near $6.65 billionPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-53.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Parsons Corporation outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PSN is an execution-sensitive industrial business, with a multi-year view that depends on restoring operating performance after recent guidance cuts. Its thesis state is watch: company momentum improved recently, but financial performance remains below its industry cohort.

What's priced into Parsons Corporation

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says PSN is cheap versus peers, while another shows an 0.8 premium to peers, and the expectations gap is negative. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility, but the evidence does not show a clear valuation cushion.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, performance is uncertain: PSN missed its most recent quarter, recent earnings surprises have been erratic, and risk is elevated, despite a recent improvement in company momentum. Management has kept focus on fiscal 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and cash flow, but cut guidance for all three in the second quarter, citing portfolio-shaping actions, market conditions, and operational impacts.

What Parsons Corporation hinges on

A favorable turn would require management to reverse course and raise guidance next quarter after the July reduction. Sector conditions also matter: continued strong results and higher guidance from BR, LDOS, and CACI could support the Industrials backdrop, while misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.