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PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG)
NYSEFinancialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this month
$39.26+2.21%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like JPM and BAC. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Financials
- Industry
- Rental & Leasing Services
- Market cap
- $1.54B
- Employees
- 1,155
- IPO date
- 2020-10-29
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-22
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $39.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$41.03consensus
Range $33.21 – $48.45
vs price: -4% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$86.62consensus
Range $57.95 – $112.90
vs price: -55% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peershigh confidence
At $39 PRG trades at 11× p/e, in line with its 11× p/e peer median. Our $40 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $35–$48. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
10.9x
peer 10.9x · own history 9.5x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-4%
our forecast -2%
Our fair value
$40.26
range $33.73 – $47.04
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 4% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=4936).
45th pctl · Financials
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 2.00x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
79th pctl · Financials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearishEPS revised -15.7% / 30d, n=7for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.11 → $0.94 (-15.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: financials is in growth, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme capital-markets/rates.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 178.1% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$175.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$350.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,120.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 16, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk rose, indicating a higher level of uncertainty. The sector backdrop remained a headwind, suggesting ongoing challenges in the industry. The valuation is described as cheap, indicating that it is priced attractively relative to peer multiples.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 11d
Watch for the next dividend announcement on June 2, 2026
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows financial health. It also shows commitment to shareholders.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The company raises the dividend or keeps it at $0.14 per share.
Disproves:The company cuts or suspends the dividend. This shows financial strain.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PRG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth dropping below 10% across major banks
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like JPM, BAC, and GS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Financials sector momentum should keep lifting PRG and other Financials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PRG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If PRG cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would weigh on PRG and other Financials names, since the sector usually outperforms when rates stay high.
- If sector bellwethers like JPM, BAC, and GS start missing or guiding lower, the Financials tailwind helping PRG and other Financials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 5.02
DEPARTURE OF DIRECTORS OR CERTAIN OFFICERS; ELECTION OF DIRECTORS; APPOINTMENT OF CERTAIN OFFICERS; COMPENSATORY ARRANGEMENTS OF CERTAIN OFFICERS On May 7, 2026, PROG Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") announced that the Company's Board of Directors (the "Board") has elected Steven A. Michaels, the Company's President and Chief Executive Officer, to the additional position of Chairman of the Board, effective immediately. Mr. Michaels succeeds Ray M. Robinson, who has been appointed Lead Independe…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.