PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG)

NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$30.27-4.90%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge PROG Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	859.5M
EPS	—	1.383
FY 2026 · Annual
PROG Holdings - revenue	$715M–$750M	—
Revenue	—	3.06B
EPS	$1–$1.2non-GAAP	4.915
EBITDA	$79M–$89Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	3.29B
EPS	—	5.549

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend payments at $0.14 per share	The company pays a steady dividend of $0.14 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.14 in any quarter	Dividend per share: $0.14 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.14 per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.14 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 383944f2-7b8f-49e6-89b0-ecda9edaf1c2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Maintained as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Quarterly dividend per share increased from $0.13 in 2025-Q4 to $0.14 in 2026-Q1 and was declared again at $0.14 in 2026-Q2. The company is consistently delivering on its dividend payment commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income increases with cost efficiency	Profit margins improve as operating income rose from $56M to $65M.	Intact	Operating income falls below $56M in any quarter	Operating income: $65.63M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $65M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 202665,630,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 383944f2-7b8f-49e6-89b0-ecda9edaf1c2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA increased from $61.5M in 2025-Q4 to $90.3M in 2026-Q1 (+46.8%). Operating income rose from $37.6M in 2025-Q4 to $65.6M in 2026-Q2. The company is delivering improved profitability consistent with management's focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue grows at least 20% annually	A primary condition in PROG Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=20% YoY revenue growth.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 15% in FY26	Revenue: $719.715M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20% YoY revenue growth. Target and observation units differ. Source published Jul 29, 2026719,715,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 383944f2-7b8f-49e6-89b0-ecda9edaf1c2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Consolidated revenue grew from $574.6M in 2025-Q4 to $742.7M in 2026-Q1 (+29.2%). Management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $3.0B-$3.1B, up from prior $2.95B-$3.07B. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with stated targets. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.55

$5.33 → $5.55 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$3.29B

$3.28B → $3.29B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.33	$3,275,556,120	8 / 8
2026-07-25	$5.33	$3,275,556,120	8 / 8
2026-07-26	$5.33	$3,275,556,120	8 / 8
2026-07-27	$5.33	$3,275,556,120	8 / 8
2026-07-28	$5.33	$3,275,556,120	8 / 8
2026-07-29	$5.33	$3,275,556,120	8 / 8
2026-07-30	$5.42	$3,276,393,635	5 / 6
2026-07-31	$5.64	$3,304,651,550	5 / 6
2026-08-01	$5.64	$3,304,651,550	5 / 6
2026-08-02	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-03	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-04	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-05	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-06	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	8 / 8
2026-08-07	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-08	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-09	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	8 / 8
2026-08-10	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-12	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	8 / 8
2026-08-13	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-14	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-15	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-16	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-17	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-18	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-19	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-20	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-21	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-22	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-23	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-24	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-25	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-26	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-27	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-28	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-29	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-30	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-08-31	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-09-01	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-09-02	$5.64	$3,304,651,500	5 / 6
2026-09-03	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-04	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-05	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-06	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-07	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-08	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-09	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-10	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-11	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-12	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-13	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-14	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-15	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-16	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-17	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-18	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-19	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-20	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-21	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-22	$5.64	$3,308,201,500	5 / 6
2026-09-23	$5.55	$3,288,959,857	5 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$3,288,959,857	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$3,288,959,857	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$3,288,959,857	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$3,288,959,857	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$3,288,959,857	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$3,288,959,857	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$3,288,966,543	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$3,288,966,543	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$3,288,966,543	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$3,288,966,543	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$3,288,966,543	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$3,288,966,543	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$3,288,966,543	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$3,288,966,543	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$3,288,789,029	4 / 6
2026-10-09	$5.55	$3,294,608,457	5 / 6
2026-10-10	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-11	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-12	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-13	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-14	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-15	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-16	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-17	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-18	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-19	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-20	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-21	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-22	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-23	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6
2026-10-24	$5.55	$3,294,537,029	5 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	6	2
2026-06-01	6	2
2026-07-01	6	3
2026-08-01	6	2
2026-09-01	6	1
2026-10-01	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Loop Capital MarketsOct 8 · prior Jul 1

$48.00 → $45.00-6.3%

JefferiesOct 7 · prior Jul 8

$60.00 → $50.00-16.7%

$0$33.00$66.00

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend payments at $0.14 per shareDividend per share: $0.14 per share
Operating income increases with cost efficiencyOperating income: $65.63M
Revenue grows at least 20% annuallyRevenue: $719.715M

Next proof point

Oct 28, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-37.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

PROG Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PRG is a growth and profitability improvement story, with earnings quality assessed as robust. Its long-term thesis is intact this month: recent performance remains in the top half of its industry, despite a weaker share-price reaction.

What's priced into PROG Holdings, Inc.

Valuation is tagged as cheap, but PRG trades at a 1.16 premium versus peers, so that label does not mean it is cheaper than comparable companies. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low. The evidence does not specify the market’s exact assumptions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent execution supports continued growth and improving profitability: management raised 2026 revenue guidance, and recent operating income and adjusted EBITDA increased. The dividend has also been maintained, while a possible guidance cut remains a key risk despite a low estimated miss probability. Overall risk has risen to elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What PROG Holdings, Inc. hinges on

The near-term view hinges on whether PRG maintains guidance and its recent operating progress; a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. Rate changes also matter, since the evidence says Financials tend to do better when rates stay high. Over the multi-year view, continued earnings strength at sector bellwethers such as Visa, Mastercard, and American Express could support sector momentum.