Reading PRAA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRAA free→Reading PRAA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PRAA free→NASDAQFinancialsCredit ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, PRAA trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 64% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is because it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 PRAA trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $41 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 62% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=3730).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.03x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Financials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.51 → $0.53 (+2.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$194.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$486.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,234.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth signals potential headwinds for PRA Group. This could impact their performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above 12% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PRAA yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, PRA Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated into this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Consumer Finance.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PRAA PRA Group, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 26 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
AXP American Express | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 56 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
COF Capital One | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | elevated |
SYF Synchrony Financial | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
AFRM Affirm Holdings Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 3 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on modernizing technology platforms and innovating with a new mobile app and global AI initiatives.
Drive higher cash collections through operational initiatives, especially in the U.S. legal collections channel.
Focus on driving higher net income through improved operational efficiency and strategic investments.
Focus on increasing operating income through strategic initiatives.
Aim to improve cash flow from operations to support business activities.
Why it matters: A slowdown in cash collections growth would signal potential challenges in the U.S. and European markets.
Confirms:Q2 cash collections growth reported below 10% compared to Q2 2025.
Disproves:Q2 cash collections growth reported at or above 10% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Slower net income growth may show problems in keeping profits high.
Confirms:Net income growth in Q2 is less than 10% year over year.
Disproves:Net income growth in Q2 is 10% or more year over year.
Why it matters: The company is making more money. This shows they are improving their profits.
Confirms:Q2 operating income growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 operating income growth is below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows the company is enhancing its operational efficiency. This is key for financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operations stays positive in Q2, above $20M.
Disproves:Cash from operations turns negative again in Q2.
Why it matters: Updates on this strategy help us see future growth and better operations.
Confirms:Management will give a detailed update on the PRA 3.0 strategy by Q3.
Disproves:No significant updates or delays in the PRA 3.0 strategy by Q3.
Why it matters: Higher expected recoveries would mean stronger cash flows in the future.
Confirms:Recoveries are expected to be over $50 million in Q2.
Disproves:Recoveries are expected to be below $30 million in Q2.
Why it matters: If net income goes over $30 million, it shows good performance and cost control.
Confirms:Net income reported above $30 million for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Net income reported below $30 million for Q2 2026.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. European Credit Agreement On April 30, 2026, PRA Group Europe Holding S.à r.l. ("PRA Group Europe Holding"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of PRA Group, Inc. (the “Company”), and its Swiss Branch, PRA Group Europe Holding S.à r.l. ("PRA Group Holding"), Luxembourg, Zug Branch, (together, the "Borrowers"), entered into the Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the "Second A&R European Credit Agreement") with the lenders party thereto ("EU Lenders…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 5, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its entry into the Second A&R European Credit Agreement. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, PRA Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its fourth quarter and full year 2025 results. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated into this