PRA Group, Inc. (PRAA)

NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$19.08-4.41%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge PRA Group, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	309.69M
EPS	—	0.895
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.3B
EPS	—	3.353
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.24B
EPS	—	3.63

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash collections grow to at least $551.9M in 2026-Q1	PRA Group is improving cash collections, up 11% in the last year.	Improving	cash collections fall below $497M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total cash collections increased from $497 million in 2025-Q1 to $559 million in 2026-Q2, reflecting growth driven by U.S. legal and European businesses. Management is delivering on enhancing cash collections. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Achieve EPS of at least $1.84 in FY 2026	A primary condition in PRA Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.84 USD_PER_SHARE.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $1.84 for FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.51 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.84 USD_PER_SHARE. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20261.51 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 930502f0-e035-4c41-969d-62e9f7eb4b4e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income improves to at least $28.2M in 2026-Q1	Net income rose from $3.7M to $28.2M in one year.	Improving	net income falls below $3.7M in any quarter after 2026-Q1	Net income: $57.917M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=28.2 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 7, 202657,917,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 930502f0-e035-4c41-969d-62e9f7eb4b4e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Net income grew from $28 million in 2026-Q1 to $58 million in 2026-Q2, with diluted EPS rising from $0.73 to $1.51. This reflects delivering improved profitability consistent with management's stated focus on increasing net income. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Progress on PRA 3.0 technology and AI initiatives	A supporting condition in PRA Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is sustain progress on PRA 3.0 strategy.	Improving	no progress or setbacks in PRA 3.0 technology initiatives over next 4 quarters	Qualitative progress confirmed (Q2 record ERC, $20M savings, AI push) Q2 2026 record ERC, $20M annualized savings, and AI push at IDEAS conference strongly reinforce PRA 3.0 strategy execution. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Total cash collections increased from $497 million in 2025-Q1 to $559 million in 2026-Q2, with adjusted EBITDA growing 10% to $1.4 billion over 12 months ended June 30, 2026. Management is delivering on PRA 3.0 strategy milestones including technology modernization and AI expansion. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
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2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	1	2
2026-06-01	1	2
2026-07-01	1	2
2026-08-01	1	2
2026-09-01	1	2
2026-10-01	1	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash collections grow to at least $551.9M in 2026-Q1Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve EPS of at least $1.84 in FY 2026Diluted EPS: $1.51 per share
Net income improves to at least $28.2M in 2026-Q1Net income: $57.917M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-42.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

PRA Group, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PRAA is a financial company with a fragile earnings profile and a recent record of weak performance. Its multi-year thesis is in a watch state: management has made progress on stated priorities, but quality and momentum measures have weakened.

What's priced into PRA Group, Inc.

The valuation evidence says PRAA is cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are already cautious. That discount is consistent with weak execution quality, but does not remove the risks tied to performance and management volatility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results could remain uneven: recent scores for quality, momentum, and management have fallen, and the Financials sector backdrop is a headwind. Management reports progress on PRA 3.0, including higher cash collections and adjusted EBITDA over the past year, while quarterly net income also improved; however, a prior deep miss and elevated risk temper confidence in the trajectory.

What PRA Group, Inc. hinges on

The thesis depends on management sustaining the strategy and improving earnings without cutting guidance on the next call. Rate changes are another swing factor, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers such as Visa, Mastercard, and American Express could support sector momentum.