Reading PINE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PINE free→Reading PINE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PINE free→NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, with robust earnings quality and stable management. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and the company is currently unprofitable, which affects its valuation. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. The outlook hinges on whether PINE can maintain guidance after recent adjustments and how sector bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $20.13. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $20 PINE trades at 5× p/s, below its 6× p/s peer median. Our $21 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $20–$22. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 5% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 34.20x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.11 → $0.13 (+18.2% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 82% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.0% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$100.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$193.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,317.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'full'.
As of June 16, 2026, the valuation changed, moving from fair to full. The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. Additionally, the risk dimension remained moderate, while the earnings quality was described as robust. The management dimension was stable, suggesting consistency in leadership.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales impact demand for real estate. Strong sales could indicate better performance for Alpine.
Confirms:Retail sales increase more than 1% month over month.
Disproves:Retail sales decline or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PINE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, unless i…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$19.50 – $22.00 (median $20.75) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-21
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Retail REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PINE Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 38 of 100 | full | moderate |
SPG Simon Property Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | low |
O Realty Income | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | fair | low |
KIM Kimco Realty | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | low |
REG Regency Centers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has raised its 2026 investment guidance to a range of $170 million to $200 million.
The company has set its 2026 disposition volume guidance to a range of $30 million to $60 million.
The company has provided an EPS guidance range of $0.74 to $0.78 for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: The real estate sector is maturing. If revenue growth re-accelerates, it could signal a positive shift for Alpine.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, unless i…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Second Amendment to Amended and Restated Agreement of Limited Partnership of Alpine Income Property OP, LP In connection with the Offering (as defined below) by Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) of the Company’s 8.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (the “Series A Preferred Stock”), the Amended and Restated Agreement of Limited Partnership of Alpine Income Property OP, LP (the “Operating Partnership”) was amended (the…
Other Events. On December 5, 2025, the Company, the Operating Partnership and the Manager entered into separate equity distribution agreements (collectively, the “Preferred Equity Distribution Agreements”) with each of Raymond James & Associates, Inc., A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners, Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, B. Riley Securities, Inc., Colliers Securities LLC, Jefferies LLC, JonesTrading Institutional Services LLC, Lucid Capital Markets, LLC, Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporate…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. First Amendment to Amended and Restated Agreement of Limited Partnership of Alpine Income Property OP, LP In connection with the Offering (as defined below) by Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. (the “Company”) of the Company’s 8.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock (the “Series A Preferred Stock”), the Amended and Restated Agreement of Limited Partnership of Alpine Income Property OP, LP (the “Operating Partnership”) was amended to pr…