Reading AKR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AKR free→Reading AKR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AKR free→NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, and management's track record is neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is low. Compared with sector peers, AKR is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 41% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $21.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $22, AKR's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 78× p/e (5.5× the 14× p/e peer median, and 0.9× even its own history). That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $15 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 41% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.03x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated fragile grew net income 35% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.04 → $0.04 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.3% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$96.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$223.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,241.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 16, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Valuation is described as expensive, indicating that the stock trades at a higher multiple compared to its peers.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If it drops below 5%, it shows less demand in Acadia's stores.
Confirms:In Q2, same-property NOI growth was below 5%.
Disproves:Q2 same-property NOI growth reported at 5% or higher.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AKR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 9, 2026, Acadia Realty Trust (the “Company”) and its operating partnership, Acadia Realty Limited Partnership (the “Operating Partnership”), entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc., Jefferies LLC, Truist Securities, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, in their capacity as underwriters and/or forward sellers, as applicable (collectively, the “Underwriters”), and Bank of America, N.A., Jefferies LLC, Truist Bank an…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Retail REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AKR Acadia Realty Trust | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | expensive | low |
SPG Simon Property Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | low |
O Realty Income | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | fair | low |
KIM Kimco Realty | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | low |
REG Regency Centers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing operating income through strategic initiatives.
Improve cash flow from operating activities to support financial stability.
Continue to provide a stable dividend of $0.20 per share to shareholders.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows trust in cash flow, even with recent problems.
Confirms:The company confirms the dividend remains at $0.20 per share.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend below $0.20 per share.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Acadia Realty Trust (the “Company”) filed a Current Report on Form 8-K (the “Initial 8-K”) furnishing supplemental reporting information regarding the financial results, operations and portfolio of the Company as of and for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Supplemental Report”). Subsequent to that filing, the Company identified certain errors on page 22 of the Supplemental Report in the following rows: • “Pre-stabilized a…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 28, 2026, Acadia Realty Trust (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its consolidated financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. On the same day, the Company made available supplemental reporting information regarding the financial results, operations and portfolio of the Company as of a…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 17, 2026, Acadia Realty Limited Partnership, a Delaware limited partnership (the “Operating Partnership”), its general partner, Acadia Realty Trust, a Maryland real estate investment trust (the “Company”), and certain of the Operating Partnership’s subsidiaries as co-borrowers, entered into a Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Facility”) with Bank of America, N.A., as administrative agent (…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant . The information set forth under