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Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$124.71-0.90%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and the company has a capital-unfriendly stance. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, with FRT trading above typical levels compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Retail
- Market cap
- $10.94B
- Employees
- 314
- IPO date
- 1994-03-18
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $124.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$111.76consensus
Range $77.26 – $160.12
vs price: +12% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$127.63consensus
Range $62.03 – $139.76
vs price: -2% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $125 the market pays 21× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 36× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $108 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $107–$135. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
21.4x
peer 16.1x · own history 36.4x
Premium
1.3x peer
0.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
16%
our forecast 9%
Our fair value
$107.66
range $73.75 – $148.55
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 16% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
88th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
37th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral8 PT revisions / 30d, avg 5.8% above currentfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.73 → $0.71 (-1.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 7 maintained. 65% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
8 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.8% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$74.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$154.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $696.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 16, 2026, the confidence label changed to medium, indicating a decrease in confidence. The sector backdrop is facing a headwind, which suggests challenges in the current environment. Risk remains low, while recent financial performance is strong, reflecting stable earnings quality.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for Q2 earnings guidance updates
Why it matters: Management raised 2026 earnings guidance after a strong Q1. More updates may show growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Management raises 2026 earnings guidance to more than $4.03 per diluted share.
Disproves:Management lowers 2026 earnings guidance to less than $3.94 per diluted share.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for FRT yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for FRT and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SPG, O, and KIM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting FRT and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If FRT beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a very large beat off a near-zero prior-year base on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If FRT reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-01), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SPG, O, and KIM start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping FRT and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-011mo agoItem 2.02
and the exhibits attached hereto shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing. On May 1, 2026, Federal Realty Investment Trust issued supplemental data pertaining to its operations, as well as a press release, to report its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The supplemental data and press release are furnished as Exhibi…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.2 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.