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Regency Centers (REG)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$78.90-0.45%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some variability in cash backing reported profits. Management's recent track record is neutral, and risk is low, while the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 68% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from REG and the performance of sector bellwethers like SPG, O, and KIM. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Retail
- Market cap
- $15.01B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-08
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $78.90. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$47.41consensus
Range $45.19 – $49.64
vs price: +66% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$32.75consensus
Range $32.75 – $32.75
vs price: +141% above
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
low confidence
We can't anchor a clean multiple for REG right now, so treat our $44 fair value as low-confidence. Analysts: $80–$90. Not investment advice.
Multiple (multiple)
—
peer — · own history —
Premium
—
Growth the price needs
81%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$43.83
range $41.77 – $45.88
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
$80.00 – $90.00 (median $85.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-12
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 81% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
69th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.50x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
36th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral5 analysts, 52% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.59 (-1.8% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 52% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.5% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: real estate is in maturing, with decelerating (~1.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$63.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$153.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $817.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for Regency's Q2 earnings results on July 29, 2026
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings will show if Regency meets its 2026 guidance. This will impact investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Q2 Nareit FFO per share exceeds $1.20, confirming strong performance.
Confirms the other:Q2 Nareit FFO per share falls below $1.20, indicating weaker results.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for REG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in the Real Estate sector.
- Watch for FOMC decisions that change interest rates.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for REG and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SPG, O, and KIM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting REG and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If REG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If REG cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SPG, O, and KIM start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping REG and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
Disclosure of Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026, Regency Centers Corporation ("Regency") issued an earnings release for the three months ended March 31, 2026, which is attached as Exhibit 99.1. On April 29, 2026, Regency posted on its website, at investors.regencycenters.com, certain supplemental information for the three months ended March 31, 2026, which are attached as Exhibit 99.2 and Exhibit 99.3, respectively.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.