Reading KIM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KIM free→Reading KIM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KIM free→NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 31% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.12. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $25 the market pays 33× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 31× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $19 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $25–$28. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 35% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.94x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.19 → $0.20 (+1.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.4% above current price.
2 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$67.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$194.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,270.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'high' to 'medium'.
As of June 16, 2026, confidence changed to medium. Risk fell, indicating a lower level of perceived uncertainty. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, suggesting challenges in the broader market environment. The overall valuation is considered fair, with peer multiples implying a price about 31% below where it trades.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is financially strong. This helps build trust with investors.
Confirms:The company announces a dividend per share that is the same or higher than before.
Disproves:The company cuts the dividend per share or suspends it.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for KIM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry Into or Amendment of a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 15, 2026, Kimco Realty OP, LLC (the “ Issuer ”), a subsidiary of Kimco Realty Corporation (the “ Company ”), issued $600,000,000 principal amount of its 3.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2031 (the “ Notes ”). The Notes were issued pursuant to, and are governed by, an indenture (the “ Indenture ”), dated as of June 15, 2026, among the Issuer, the Company and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee (the “ Tr…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$25.00 – $28.00 (median $25.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2018-Q1, 2018-Q2, 2018-Q3, 2019-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Retail REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KIM Kimco Realty | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | full | low |
SPG Simon Property Group | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 24 of 100 | expensive | low |
O Realty Income | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | low |
REG Regency Centers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
FRT Federal Realty Investment Trust | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | low |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=5004).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on growing Funds From Operations per diluted share to enhance shareholder value.
Commitment to maintaining and slightly increasing the dividend per share to provide shareholder returns.
Focus on increasing leasing activity to drive occupancy and rental income.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this target shows Kimco's strong cash flow and growth strategy is working.
Confirms:Q2 FFO per diluted share reported at or above $0.46.
Disproves:Q2 FFO per diluted share reported below $0.46.
Why it matters: Higher occupancy rates show strong demand for Kimco's properties. This helps revenue growth.
Confirms:Leased occupancy was over 96.5% in Q2.
Disproves:Leased occupancy was under 96.5% in Q2.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector speeds up, it may benefit Kimco's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is starting to speed up again toward past highs.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down or stays the same.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends would show confidence in cash flow and financial health.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend increase above $0.26 per share.
Disproves:No increase in the dividend from the current $0.26 per share.
Why it matters: Changes in NOI growth guidance indicate how well Kimco is managing its properties and demand.
Confirms:Same property NOI growth guidance is raised above +3.5% for 2026.
Disproves:Same property NOI growth guidance is lowered below +2.5% for 2026.
Why it matters: How well this offering does will affect Kimco's money options and its capital setup.
Confirms one read:The offering raises over $500 million. This helps improve cash flow.
Confirms the other:The offering does not raise the target amount. This limits money options.
Why it matters: Strong leasing activity helps revenue growth. It also boosts occupancy rates, which are key for Kimco.
Confirms:Leasing activity increases by more than 5% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Disproves:Leasing activity decreases or grows less than 5% in Q2 compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend is important. It helps build trust with investors and keeps income steady.
Confirms one read:Kimco announces a dividend per share of at least $0.20.
Confirms the other:Kimco cuts the dividend per share below $0.18.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift in the real estate sector.
Confirms:Real estate sector revenue growth rises above 8% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 6% year over year.
The Notes were issued to the initial purchasers in reliance upon Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act in transactions not involving any public offering. The Notes were resold by the initial purchasers to persons whom the initial purchasers reasonably believe are “qualified institutional buyers,” as defined in, and in accordance with, Rule 144A under the Securities Act. Any shares of the Company’s common stock that may be issued upon exchange of the Notes will be issued in reliance upon Secti…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. The disclosure set forth in
Neither this Current Report on Form 8-K nor either press release constitutes an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, the Notes or the shares of the Company’s common stock, if any, issuable upon exchange of the Notes. Forward-Looking Statements The statements above reflect Kimco’s and management’s intentions, beliefs, expectations or projections of the future and are forward-looking statements. It is important to note that Kimco’s actual results could differ materially from t…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Kimco Realty Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this