Kimco Realty (KIM)

NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15

$22.91+1.06%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Kimco Realty’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

0.89 → 0.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Dividend per share stays at or above $0.26	Kimco Realty grows FFO per share to about $0.46 next quarter.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.25 next quarter	Dividend per share: $0.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.26 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 4, 20260.26 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c0dc1e6b-0f87-435e-a63e-7893c86ec2b9. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
FFO per diluted share grows to at least $0.46	Kimco Realty grows FFO per share to about $0.46 next quarter.	Intact	FFO per share falls below $0.44 next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. FFO per diluted share grew from $0.44 in 2025-Q2 to $0.46 in 2026-Q2, representing 4.5% growth in the latest quarter. Full year 2025 FFO per share increased 6.7% to $1.76. Management has consistently raised 2026 FFO outlook, indicating delivery on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Leased space increases to at least 4.4 million square feet	It leases more space, 4.4 million square feet in Q1.	Intact	Leased space falls below 2.7 million square feet next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Portfolio occupancy remained at all-time highs, increasing slightly from 96.3% in 2026-Q1 to 96.4% in 2026-Q2, with small shop occupancy rising from 92.7% in 2025-Q4 to 92.9% in 2026-Q2. Leasing activity generated strong rent spreads and occupancy gains, indicating delivery on this growth priority. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$0.89

$0.85 → $0.89 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$2.30B

$2.28B → $2.30B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$0.85	$2,284,912,687	8 / 7
2026-07-25	$0.85	$2,284,912,687	8 / 7
2026-07-26	$0.87	$2,275,399,560	5 / 7
2026-07-27	$0.87	$2,275,399,560	5 / 7
2026-07-28	$0.85	$2,289,961,779	8 / 7
2026-07-29	$0.87	$2,275,399,560	5 / 7
2026-07-30	$0.85	$2,289,961,779	8 / 7
2026-07-31	$0.85	$2,289,961,779	8 / 7
2026-08-01	$0.85	$2,289,961,779	8 / 7
2026-08-02	$0.87	$2,275,399,560	5 / 7
2026-08-03	$0.87	$2,275,399,560	5 / 7
2026-08-04	$0.87	$2,275,399,560	5 / 7
2026-08-05	$0.85	$2,289,961,779	8 / 7
2026-08-06	$0.85	$2,289,961,779	8 / 7
2026-08-07	$0.87	$2,286,084,819	8 / 7
2026-08-08	$0.89	$2,267,388,990	5 / 8
2026-08-09	$0.87	$2,286,084,819	8 / 7
2026-08-10	$0.87	$2,286,084,819	8 / 7
2026-08-12	$0.89	$2,266,933,740	5 / 8
2026-08-13	$0.87	$2,286,084,819	8 / 7
2026-08-14	$0.87	$2,286,084,819	8 / 7
2026-08-15	$0.87	$2,286,084,819	8 / 8
2026-08-16	$0.87	$2,286,084,819	8 / 8
2026-08-17	$0.87	$2,286,084,819	8 / 8
2026-08-18	$0.87	$2,286,084,819	8 / 8
2026-08-19	$0.87	$2,286,084,819	8 / 7
2026-08-20	$0.89	$2,296,555,267	8 / 7
2026-08-21	$0.89	$2,296,555,267	8 / 7
2026-08-22	$0.89	$2,297,261,942	8 / 7
2026-08-23	$0.89	$2,297,261,942	8 / 7
2026-08-24	$0.89	$2,297,261,942	8 / 7
2026-08-25	$0.89	$2,293,243,232	8 / 7
2026-08-26	$0.89	$2,293,243,232	8 / 7
2026-08-27	$0.89	$2,293,243,232	8 / 7
2026-08-28	$0.89	$2,293,243,232	8 / 7
2026-08-29	$0.89	$2,292,311,865	8 / 7
2026-08-30	$0.89	$2,292,311,865	8 / 7
2026-08-31	$0.89	$2,292,311,865	8 / 7
2026-09-01	$0.88	$2,293,178,021	8 / 7
2026-09-02	$0.88	$2,293,178,021	8 / 7
2026-09-03	$0.89	$2,293,617,055	8 / 7
2026-09-04	$0.89	$2,296,181,560	8 / 7
2026-09-05	$0.89	$2,296,181,560	8 / 7
2026-09-06	$0.89	$2,296,181,560	8 / 7
2026-09-07	$0.89	$2,294,113,529	8 / 7
2026-09-08	$0.89	$2,294,113,529	8 / 7
2026-09-09	$0.89	$2,294,113,529	8 / 7
2026-09-10	$0.89	$2,294,113,529	7 / 7
2026-09-11	$0.89	$2,293,798,802	7 / 7
2026-09-12	$0.89	$2,293,798,802	7 / 6
2026-09-13	$0.89	$2,293,798,802	7 / 6
2026-09-14	$0.89	$2,293,798,802	7 / 6
2026-09-15	$0.89	$2,293,798,802	7 / 6
2026-09-16	$0.89	$2,293,798,802	7 / 6
2026-09-17	$0.89	$2,293,798,802	7 / 6
2026-09-18	$0.89	$2,293,798,802	7 / 6
2026-09-19	$0.89	$2,293,798,802	7 / 6
2026-09-20	$0.89	$2,293,816,032	7 / 6
2026-09-21	$0.89	$2,293,816,032	7 / 6
2026-09-22	$0.89	$2,293,816,032	7 / 6
2026-09-23	$0.89	$2,300,332,854	7 / 6
2026-09-24	$0.89	$2,300,332,854	7 / 6
2026-09-25	$0.89	$2,302,164,958	7 / 6
2026-09-26	$0.89	$2,302,164,958	7 / 6
2026-09-27	$0.89	$2,302,164,958	7 / 6
2026-09-28	$0.89	$2,302,164,958	7 / 6
2026-09-29	$0.89	$2,294,207,873	7 / 6
2026-09-30	$0.89	$2,294,207,873	7 / 6
2026-10-01	$0.89	$2,294,207,873	7 / 6
2026-10-02	$0.89	$2,295,805,203	7 / 6
2026-10-03	$0.89	$2,297,209,162	7 / 6
2026-10-04	$0.89	$2,297,209,162	7 / 6
2026-10-05	$0.89	$2,297,209,162	7 / 6
2026-10-06	$0.89	$2,297,209,162	7 / 6
2026-10-07	$0.89	$2,297,209,162	7 / 6
2026-10-08	$0.89	$2,297,209,162	7 / 6
2026-10-09	$0.89	$2,297,209,162	7 / 6
2026-10-10	$0.89	$2,297,209,162	7 / 6
2026-10-11	$0.89	$2,297,209,162	7 / 6
2026-10-12	$0.89	$2,297,209,162	7 / 6
2026-10-13	$0.89	$2,297,209,162	7 / 6
2026-10-14	$0.89	$2,297,209,162	7 / 6
2026-10-15	$0.89	$2,297,209,162	7 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	10	15
2026-06-01	11	16
2026-07-01	10	15
2026-08-01	9	15
2026-09-01	10	15
2026-10-01	9	15

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades5 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 12

$27.00New observation · no comparable prior

Goldman SachsOct 7 · prior Aug 11

$28.00 → $24.00-14.3%

Truist FinancialOct 1 · prior May 28

$25.00 → $24.00-4.0%

UBSSep 24 · prior Jul 9

$29.00 → $23.00-20.7%

$0$15.95$31.90

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Dividend per share stays at or above $0.26Dividend per share: $0.26 per share
FFO per diluted share grows to at least $0.46Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Leased space increases to at least 4.4 million square feetDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Kimco Realty outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

KIM represents a stable investment in the real estate sector, focusing on growth through increasing funds from operations (FFO) and dividends. The current thesis state is intact, but it faces sector headwinds and a recent decline in company quality.

What's priced into Kimco Realty

The market appears to price KIM as justified but recognizes a slight expectations gap. Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a premium of 5.46, indicating that some positive future performance may already be assumed.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve its priorities, including growing FFO per share and maintaining high occupancy rates. Although recent financial performance has been neutral, the company is executing well on its growth strategies.

What Kimco Realty hinges on

Key factors for KIM's future include the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and the performance of sector leaders like SPG and O. A reversal in guidance could negatively impact credibility and stock performance.