Reading ADC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADC free→Reading ADC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ADC free→NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is low, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 123% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from ADC, which could damage credibility, and the performance of sector bellwethers that may influence the Real Estate sector's momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $74.47. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $74 the market pays 40× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 39× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $33 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $80–$91. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 123% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 20%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.38x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to the US dollar and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.47 → $0.46 (-3.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.1% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$72.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$155.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,177.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Confirming the AFFO guidance of $4.54 to $4.58 shows strong earnings growth potential.
Confirms:Q2 AFFO per share meets or exceeds the guidance range of $4.54 to $4.58.
Disproves:Q2 AFFO per share falls below $4.54.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ADC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 21, 2026, Agree Realty Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release describing its results of operations for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, and posted an updated investor presentation and supplemental financial information, including additional financial and operating metrics to its website. The press release, investor presentation and supplemental financial information are furnished as Exhibits 99.1, 99.2 and 99.3, respec…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$80.00 – $91.00 (median $84.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Retail REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ADC Agree Realty | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | expensive | low |
SPG Simon Property Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | full | low |
O Realty Income | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | low |
KIM Kimco Realty | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | low |
REG Regency Centers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and investments.
Improve operating income through cost management and efficiency gains.
Aim to increase net income through strategic growth and cost efficiency.
Why it matters: Reaching the upper end of investment guidance shows strong growth and demand in retail properties.
Confirms:Total investment volume for 2026 reaches or exceeds $1.6 billion.
Disproves:Total investment volume for 2026 stays below $1.4 billion.
Why it matters: High lease expirations may mean revenue loss. They can also lead to tenant turnover.
Confirms:Lease expirations exceed 1% of annualized base rents for 2026.
Disproves:Lease expirations stay below 1% of annual base rents.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show strong cash flow. They also show management's faith in future earnings.
Confirms:Management says they will raise the dividend above the current $0.267 per share.
Disproves:Dividends remain flat or decrease.
Regulation FD Disclosure. On February 26, 2026, the Company posted an updated investor presentation to its website at www.agreerealty.com, which is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is hereby incorporated by reference. In the presentation, the Company disclosed that it entered into forward sale agreements in connection with its at-the-market equity program to sell an aggregate of approximately 8.3 million shares of common stock for anticipated net proceeds of over $623 million. In…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 10, 2026, Agree Realty Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release describing its results of operations for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, and posted an updated investor presentation to its website. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The investor presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this report. The information furnished with this Item 2.02 (including Exhibits 99.1…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 21, 2025, Agree Realty Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release describing its results of operations for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, and posted an updated investor presentation to its website. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The investor presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this report. The information furnished with this Item 2.02 (including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2 under