Reading NNN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NNN free→Reading NNN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NNN free→NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is neutral. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 62% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $46.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $46 the market pays 23× p/e — above the 14× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $29 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $45–$50. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 62% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.71x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 61% of the time over the next year (vs 47% for the rest of the cohort, n=1866).
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.52 → $0.51 (-2.9% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 18% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 5.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$67.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$152.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $883.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: High unemployment claims can indicate economic weakness. This could impact NNN REIT's tenants and rental income.
Confirms:Unemployment claims are much higher than they have been recently.
Disproves:Unemployment claims fall or stay stable at low levels.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase Core FFO per share guidance
Higher price target supports growth in Core FFO.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, NNN REIT, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The press release is available on the Company's website. The information in this Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Ac…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$45.00 – $50.00 (median $46.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Retail REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NNN NNN Reit | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | low |
SPG Simon Property Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | full | low |
O Realty Income | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | low |
KIM Kimco Realty | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | full | low |
REG Regency Centers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 63 of 100 | expensive | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to increase Core FFO per share guidance for the fiscal year.
Management plans to increase the guidance for disposition volume for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Changes in AFFO guidance show how the company is growing and doing well.
Confirms:Q2 AFFO per share guidance raised above $3.59.
Disproves:Q2 AFFO per share guidance lowered below $3.53.
Why it matters: The real estate sector is maturing. If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for NNN REIT.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth shows signs of re-accelerating back toward prior highs.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth continues to decline or remains stagnant.
Why it matters: Raising guidance would show stronger earnings potential. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Management announces an increase in Core FFO per share guidance for the next quarter.
Disproves:Management maintains or lowers Core FFO per share guidance.
Why it matters: A longer lease term shows steady rental income and tenant loyalty.
Confirms:Weighted average lease term increases above 10.5 years.
Disproves:Weighted average lease term decreases below 10.1 years.
Why it matters: Higher disposition volume could signal better asset management and cash flow. This is key for growth.
Confirms:Management changed their guidance. They will increase the amount of items sold.
Disproves:Management lowers or keeps the same guidance for the amount of items sold.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 19, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of NNN REIT, Inc. ("NNN" or the "Company") announced that Steven D. Cosler, Chairperson ("Chair"), has retired from the Board effective February 18, 2026. Edward J. Fritsch, an independent director, has been appointed by the Board to succeed Mr. Cosler and serve as Chair effective upon Mr.…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 11, 2026, NNN REIT, Inc. (the "Company"), issued a press release announcing its results of operations and financial condition for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and the supplemental data is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.2 to this report. The press release and the supplemental data are available on the Company's website. The information in this Form 8-K…