NNN Reit (NNN)

NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$41.72-0.97%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge NNN Reit’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.12 → 2.10 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	248.39M
EPS	—	0.523
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	974.16M
EPS	—	2.055
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.03B
EPS	—	2.103

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Core FFO per share reaches about $3.51 in 2026	Management raised Core FFO per share guidance to about $3.51 for 2026.	Intact	Core FFO per share falls below $3.48 in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Core FFO per share grew from $0.86 in 2026-Q1 to $0.89 in 2026-Q2, and AFFO per share grew from $0.87 to $0.90 in the same period. Management raised 2026 Core FFO guidance from $3.48-$3.54 to $3.50-$3.54 and AFFO guidance from $3.53-$3.59 to $3.55-$3.59. The trajectory is delivering consistent per-share growth aligned with guidance increases. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Dividend yield remains near 5%	Dividend yield is stable near 5%.	Under Pressure	Dividend yield falls below 4.5%	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 6.9% year-over-year	A primary condition in NNN Reit's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.9% YoY.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 6.9% year-over-year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Core FFO per share grew from $0.86 in 2026-Q1 to $0.89 in 2026-Q2, and AFFO per share grew from $0.87 to $0.90 in the same period. Management raised 2026 Core FFO guidance from $3.48-$3.54 to $3.50-$3.54 and AFFO guidance from $3.53-$3.59 to $3.55-$3.59. The trajectory is delivering consistent per-share growth aligned with guidance increases. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
PE ratio remains justified relative to peers	A supporting condition in NNN Reit's published investment case. The stated target is PE ratio <= 24.08 with growth >= 6.9%.	Improving	PE ratio expands further without growth above 6.9%	Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.10

$2.10 → $2.10 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.03B

$1.02B → $1.03B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.10	$1,016,494,697	5 / 9
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,023,616,400	4 / 11
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,023,616,400	4 / 11
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,023,616,400	4 / 11
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,023,616,400	4 / 11
2026-07-29	$2.10	$1,016,494,697	5 / 9
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,023,616,400	4 / 11
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,023,616,400	4 / 11
2026-08-01	$2.10	$1,016,494,697	5 / 9
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,023,616,400	4 / 11
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,023,616,400	4 / 11
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,023,616,400	4 / 11
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,023,616,400	4 / 11
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,023,616,400	4 / 11
2026-08-07	$2.09	$1,019,858,297	5 / 9
2026-08-08	$2.09	$1,019,858,297	5 / 9
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,029,721,400	4 / 11
2026-08-10	$2.09	$1,019,858,297	5 / 9
2026-08-12	$2.09	$1,019,858,297	5 / 9
2026-08-13	$2.09	$1,019,858,297	5 / 9
2026-08-14	$2.09	$1,019,858,297	5 / 9
2026-08-15	$2.09	$1,019,858,297	5 / 9
2026-08-16	$2.09	$1,019,858,297	5 / 9
2026-08-17	$2.09	$1,019,858,297	5 / 9
2026-08-18	$2.09	$1,019,858,297	5 / 9
2026-08-19	$2.09	$1,019,858,297	5 / 9
2026-08-20	$2.10	$1,025,187,965	5 / 9
2026-08-21	$2.10	$1,025,187,965	5 / 9
2026-08-22	$2.10	$1,025,187,965	5 / 9
2026-08-23	$2.10	$1,025,187,965	5 / 9
2026-08-24	$2.10	$1,025,187,965	5 / 9
2026-08-25	$2.10	$1,025,187,965	5 / 9
2026-08-26	$2.10	$1,025,187,965	5 / 9
2026-08-27	$2.10	$1,025,187,965	5 / 9
2026-08-28	$2.10	$1,025,187,965	5 / 9
2026-08-29	$2.11	$1,024,300,813	5 / 9
2026-08-30	$2.11	$1,024,300,813	5 / 9
2026-08-31	$2.11	$1,024,300,813	5 / 9
2026-09-01	$2.11	$1,024,300,813	5 / 9
2026-09-02	$2.11	$1,024,300,813	5 / 9
2026-09-03	$2.11	$1,024,368,384	5 / 9
2026-09-04	$2.11	$1,024,368,384	5 / 9
2026-09-05	$2.11	$1,024,368,384	5 / 9
2026-09-06	$2.11	$1,024,368,384	5 / 9
2026-09-07	$2.11	$1,024,368,384	5 / 9
2026-09-08	$2.11	$1,024,368,384	5 / 9
2026-09-09	$2.11	$1,024,368,384	5 / 9
2026-09-10	$2.11	$1,024,368,384	5 / 9
2026-09-11	$2.11	$1,024,368,384	5 / 9
2026-09-12	$2.11	$1,024,368,384	5 / 9
2026-09-13	$2.11	$1,024,368,384	5 / 9
2026-09-14	$2.11	$1,024,368,384	5 / 9
2026-09-15	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-16	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-17	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-18	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-19	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-20	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-21	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-22	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-23	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-24	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-25	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-26	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-27	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-28	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-29	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-09-30	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-10-01	$2.12	$1,025,022,318	5 / 9
2026-10-02	$2.12	$1,025,093,746	5 / 9
2026-10-03	$2.10	$1,026,167,496	6 / 9
2026-10-04	$2.10	$1,026,315,247	6 / 9
2026-10-05	$2.10	$1,026,315,247	6 / 9
2026-10-06	$2.10	$1,026,315,247	6 / 9
2026-10-07	$2.10	$1,026,315,247	6 / 9
2026-10-08	$2.10	$1,026,315,247	6 / 9
2026-10-09	$2.10	$1,026,315,247	6 / 9
2026-10-10	$2.10	$1,026,315,247	6 / 9
2026-10-11	$2.10	$1,026,315,247	6 / 9
2026-10-12	$2.10	$1,026,315,247	6 / 9
2026-10-13	$2.09	$1,027,068,103	6 / 9
2026-10-14	$2.09	$1,027,068,103	6 / 9
2026-10-15	$2.09	$1,027,068,103	6 / 9
2026-10-16	$2.09	$1,027,068,103	6 / 9
2026-10-17	$2.09	$1,027,068,103	6 / 9
2026-10-18	$2.10	$1,026,870,410	6 / 9
2026-10-19	$2.10	$1,026,870,410	6 / 9
2026-10-20	$2.10	$1,026,870,410	6 / 9
2026-10-21	$2.10	$1,027,396,262	6 / 9
2026-10-22	$2.10	$1,027,396,262	6 / 9
2026-10-23	$2.10	$1,027,396,262	6 / 9
2026-10-24	$2.10	$1,027,396,262	6 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	11	3
2026-06-01	3	11	3
2026-07-01	3	12	3
2026-08-01	2	12	3
2026-09-01	3	12	3
2026-10-01	3	12	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 19 · prior Sep 1

$47.00 → $43.00-8.5%

Truist FinancialOct 1

$45.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$25.85$51.70

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Core FFO per share reaches about $3.51 in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Dividend yield remains near 5%Published status: Under Pressure
Revenue grows at least 6.9% year-over-yearDirect metric needs a verified mapping
PE ratio remains justified relative to peersValuation inputs unavailable

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-19.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

NNN Reit outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

NNN is a real estate income and growth business with a measured, execution-led long-term thesis. The thesis is intact, with management priorities on track and the risk label recently moving from moderate to low.

What's priced into NNN Reit

Valuation is broadly aligned with expectations, and the evidence does not show a large expectations gap. NNN trades at a slight premium to peers, while the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified and fragility is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, per-share results have improved, management raised 2026 guidance, and acquisition volume increased while occupancy reached 99.1%. These trends support continued execution, though the sector backdrop is a headwind and the industry has had a high rate of earnings misses.

What NNN Reit hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on NNN sustaining its guidance after the recent increase and continuing disciplined acquisitions, per-share growth, and strong occupancy. Fed rate cuts and stronger results from sector peers could help the sector backdrop, while a guidance reversal would damage management credibility.