Reading PECO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PECO free→Reading PECO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PECO free→NASDAQReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, and risk is low. However, the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 52% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $41.59. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $41, PECO's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 75× p/e (5.2× the 14× p/e peer median, and 0.9× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~47% near-term growth vs our ~8% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $28 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $42–$45. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 47% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated strong grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=1506).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.97x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.17 (-0.8% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.2% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$71.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$139.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $777.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
The signal changed to mixed. The sector backdrop fell to a headwind. Valuation remained expensive, indicating that the stock trades above peer multiples. The risk level is low, suggesting a stable risk profile.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If same-center NOI growth slows, it may mean less demand for PECO's properties.
Confirms:Same-center NOI growth reported below 3.0% for Q2 2026.
Disproves:Same-center NOI growth reported above 3.0% for Q2 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PECO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$42.00 – $45.00 (median $43.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Retail REITs.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PECO Phillips Edison & Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | low |
SPG Simon Property Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | full | low |
O Realty Income | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | low |
KIM Kimco Realty | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | full | low |
REG Regency Centers | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | expensive | low |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Real Estate names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=3736).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLRE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
PECO aims to increase its net income per share guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
PECO is committed to maintaining its dividend growth strategy.
PECO is focused on achieving consistent revenue growth through strategic acquisitions and leasing activities.
Why it matters: If the real estate sector grows, it may help PECO's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, above 3% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth slows down, below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: An increase in guidance would show confidence in PECO's growth. This could attract more investors.
Confirms:Management raises net income per share guidance above $0.79 for 2026.
Disproves:Guidance remains at or below $0.79 per share for 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in Core FFO guidance shows strong performance and growth confidence.
Confirms:Full year 2026 Core FFO guidance raised above 5.8% year-over-year growth.
Disproves:Core FFO guidance remains at or below 5.8% year-over-year growth.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth is re-accelerating or not. This is key for understanding the company's position in a maturing sector.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows strong cash flow and support for shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement of dividend increase above $0.1083 per share for future months.
Disproves:No increase or a decrease in the monthly dividend distribution.
Why it matters: Changes in unemployment claims can show shifts in consumer spending. This affects PECO's rental income.
Confirms one read:Unemployment claims drop a lot, showing a stronger job market.
Confirms the other:Unemployment claims rise, showing possible weakness in the job market.
Entry into Material Definitive Agreement. The information set forth in
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On February 26, 2026, Phillips Edison Grocery Center Operating Partnership I, L.P. (the “Issuer”), a Delaware limited partnership and subsidiary of Phillips Edison & Company, Inc. (the “Guarantor”), completed an underwritten public offering of $350,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.750% Senior Notes due 2033 (the “Notes”). The Notes are fully and unconditionally guarant…
Other Events. On February 24, 2026, the Issuer and the Guarantor entered into an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, BMO Capital Markets Corp., BofA Securities, Inc., Mizuho Securities USA LLC and PNC Capital Markets LLC, as representatives of the several underwriters named therein, relating to a public offering by the Issuer of the Notes. The description of the Underwriting Agreement in this Current Report on Form 8-K is a summary and is qu…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition.