Phillips Edison & Company (PECO)

NASDAQReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$38.36+0.18%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Phillips Edison & Company’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	194.67M
EPS	—	0.186
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	756.92M
EPS	—	0.857
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	805.4M
EPS	—	0.842

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend per share near $0.32 in Q1 2026	Management raised net income per share guidance to $0.81 for 2026.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.31 in Q1 2026	Dividend per share: $0.32 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.32 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 20260.3249 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3d724830-e93b-4572-8225-b4d7dff337e2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain gross margin near 3.5% in 2026	A supporting condition in Phillips Edison & Company's published investment case. The stated target is ~3.5%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 3.0% in FY26	Gross margin: 3.01% FY2026-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~3.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Apr 24, 20263.008463 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q1 · Period ending Mar 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Net income per share guidance raised to $0.81 for 2026	Management raised net income per share guidance to $0.81 for 2026.	Intact	EPS guidance falls below $0.74 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.33 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.81. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 20260.33 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3d724830-e93b-4572-8225-b4d7dff337e2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue growth of at least $450 million in 2026	A primary condition in Phillips Edison & Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= $450 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $400 million in FY26	Revenue: $189.619M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $450 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 24, 2026189,619,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 3d724830-e93b-4572-8225-b4d7dff337e2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.81B

$0.81B → $0.81B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$805,688,800	2 / 8
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$805,688,800	2 / 8
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$805,688,800	2 / 8
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$804,299,045	4 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$804,299,045	4 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$809,728,850	2 / 8
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$809,728,850	2 / 8
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$809,728,850	2 / 8
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$810,290,380	2 / 8
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$810,290,380	2 / 8
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$810,290,380	2 / 8
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$810,290,380	2 / 8
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$807,861,199	4 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$808,360,310	4 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$808,360,310	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$808,360,310	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$808,360,310	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$808,360,310	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$808,360,310	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$808,360,310	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$808,360,310	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$808,360,310	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$804,599,224	4 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$804,599,224	4 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$804,599,224	4 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$806,267,684	4 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$806,267,684	4 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$805,523,599	4 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$805,523,599	4 / 7
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$805,523,599	4 / 7
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 7
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 7
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 7
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 7
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 7
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 7
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 7
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 7
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 7
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 7
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 6
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 6
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 6
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 6
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 6
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$803,230,508	4 / 6
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$806,325,945	4 / 6
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$806,325,945	4 / 6
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$806,325,945	4 / 6
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$806,325,945	4 / 6
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$806,325,945	4 / 6
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$806,325,945	4 / 6
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$806,325,945	4 / 6
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$806,325,945	4 / 6
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$806,325,945	4 / 6
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$806,325,945	4 / 6
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$804,895,070	4 / 6
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$804,916,600	4 / 6
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$804,241,350	4 / 6
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$804,241,350	4 / 6
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$804,241,350	4 / 6
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$804,241,350	4 / 6
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$802,090,623	4 / 6
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$802,090,623	4 / 6
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$802,090,623	4 / 6
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$802,090,623	4 / 6
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$802,090,623	4 / 6
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$802,090,623	4 / 6
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$802,090,623	4 / 6
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$802,090,623	4 / 6
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$802,090,623	4 / 6
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$805,458,334	4 / 6
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$805,458,334	4 / 6
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$805,458,334	4 / 6
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$805,398,001	4 / 6

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	7
2026-06-01	7	7
2026-07-01	7	7
2026-08-01	7	7
2026-09-01	7	7
2026-10-01	7	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 23 · prior Oct 5

$41.00 → $40.00-2.4%

UBSOct 9 · prior Sep 24

$39.00 → $42.00+7.7%

Goldman SachsOct 7

$44.00New observation · no comparable prior

BarclaysSep 28 · prior Aug 17

$46.00 → $43.00-6.5%

$0$25.30$50.60

1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend per share near $0.32 in Q1 2026Dividend per share: $0.32 per share
Maintain gross margin near 3.5% in 2026Gross margin: 3.01%
Net income per share guidance raised to $0.81 for 2026Diluted EPS: $0.33 per share
Achieve revenue growth of at least $450 million in 2026Revenue: $189.619M

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-16.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Phillips Edison & Company outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PECO is a real estate company with a steady-growth profile, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent results holding in the top half of its industry, though confidence has eased from high to medium.

What's priced into Phillips Edison & Company

The valuation is expensive versus peers, at a stated premium of 1.18, while the expectations gap is slightly negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence suggests expectations are broadly aligned rather than unusually stretched.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results have been strong: Core FFO per diluted share, a measure of operating performance, rose 7.2% in the first half of 2026, and same-center NOI, a measure of property income from comparable locations, grew 3.8% in the second quarter. Management reaffirmed full-year growth guidance and raised its acquisition range, though execution against the acquisition goal is mixed and the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What Phillips Edison & Company hinges on

Over the next year, the thesis depends on PECO sustaining operating growth and delivering its guidance without a reversal after the recent increase. Lower interest rates and continued strong earnings from real estate peers could support the sector, while recent peer misses and any guidance cut are key risks.