Agree Realty (ADC)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
$72.59-0.26%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Agree Realty grows revenue about 18.7% year over year. Operating income rose from $82 million to $98.6 million in one quarter. Net income increased from $49.2 million to $62.1 million. The company maintains stable management and low risk in a challenging sector.
The stock trades at a high PE of 41.98 versus peers at 13.22. Free cash flow yield is negative at -0.36%. Revenue growth could slow below the 17% analysts expect. Rising costs might pressure profit margins and net income growth.
The price is about 23% above our fair value near $64 and 24% below the Street median target of $84. Analysts expect 17.4% revenue growth, which aligns with recent results. Our view is more cautious on valuation but agrees on growth.
Breaks if: Net income falls below $55 million next year
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $90 million next year
YoY revenue growth falls below 15% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
ADC represents a stable investment with a focus on long-term growth. The current thesis is intact, supported by recent strong financial results and management's commitment to increasing investment and dividends.
The market currently reflects a neutral valuation for ADC, with expectations slightly below its recent performance. It is priced at a premium compared to peers, indicating that some positive sentiment is already factored in.
Management is on track to meet its goals for increased investment volume and AFFO per share. However, the company operates in a high-miss-rate industry, which introduces some near-term risk despite a low probability of missing expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on the company's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and the broader real estate sector's performance. Key factors include potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and the performance of sector leaders.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company affirmed its monthly dividend with a 4.3% increase for 2026. This signals confidence in its capital allocation objectives. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and investments.
Breaks if: PE ratio rises above 45 or falls below 30 with no earnings growth
ADC's fundamentals appear strong, but the company must navigate sector challenges and maintain credibility. Not investment advice.