Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)

NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-15

$106.32+0.61%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Federal Realty Investment Trust’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-3.7%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.23 → 3.12 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Effective management of capital allocation obligations	A supporting condition in Federal Realty Investment Trust's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain disciplined capital allocation.	Intact	Capital allocation missteps materially increase financial risk	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
2026 EPS at or above $3.94	A primary condition in Federal Realty Investment Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.94 USD per share.	Intact	EPS falls below $3.94 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.97 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.94 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20260.97 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 31944e9d-e494-441b-bef3-f65d7910ce29. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Federal Realty raised and tightened its 2026 earnings per diluted share guidance from $3.90-$4.00 in 2025-Q4 to $4.22-$4.30 in 2026-Q2, and Core FFO guidance from $7.42-$7.52 to $7.48-$7.56, representing 5.9%-7.1% Core FFO growth over prior year. The trajectory matches management's stated confidence in durable growth and is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue growth near 6% annually	A primary condition in Federal Realty Investment Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.7% YoY.	Intact	Revenue growth falls below 5.7% YoY in FY26	Revenue growth: 7.76% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 31, 20267.76283 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 31944e9d-e494-441b-bef3-f65d7910ce29. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$3.12

$3.08 → $3.12 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.43B

$1.42B → $1.43B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$3.08	$1,424,942,310	6 / 8
2026-07-25	$3.08	$1,424,942,310	6 / 8
2026-07-26	$3.08	$1,424,942,310	6 / 8
2026-07-27	$3.08	$1,424,942,310	6 / 8
2026-07-28	$3.04	$1,423,069,154	8 / 7
2026-07-29	$3.08	$1,424,942,310	6 / 8
2026-07-30	$3.08	$1,424,942,310	6 / 8
2026-07-31	$3.08	$1,424,942,310	6 / 8
2026-08-01	$3.04	$1,423,069,154	8 / 7
2026-08-02	$3.04	$1,423,419,571	8 / 7
2026-08-03	$3.08	$1,424,787,190	6 / 8
2026-08-04	$3.08	$1,424,787,190	6 / 8
2026-08-05	$3.04	$1,424,291,745	8 / 7
2026-08-06	$3.09	$1,426,095,450	6 / 8
2026-08-07	$3.04	$1,424,291,745	8 / 7
2026-08-08	$3.09	$1,419,822,470	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$3.09	$1,419,822,470	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$3.04	$1,424,291,745	8 / 7
2026-08-11	$3.09	$1,426,095,450	6 / 8
2026-08-12	$3.04	$1,424,291,745	8 / 7
2026-08-13	$3.04	$1,424,291,745	8 / 7
2026-08-14	$3.04	$1,424,291,745	8 / 7
2026-08-15	$3.04	$1,424,291,745	8 / 7
2026-08-16	$3.04	$1,424,291,745	8 / 7
2026-08-17	$3.04	$1,424,291,745	8 / 7
2026-08-18	$3.04	$1,424,291,745	8 / 7
2026-08-19	$3.04	$1,424,291,745	8 / 7
2026-08-20	$3.05	$1,423,628,745	8 / 7
2026-08-21	$3.05	$1,428,049,540	8 / 7
2026-08-22	$3.17	$1,429,491,176	8 / 7
2026-08-23	$3.17	$1,429,491,176	8 / 7
2026-08-24	$3.17	$1,429,491,176	8 / 7
2026-08-25	$3.17	$1,429,433,949	8 / 7
2026-08-26	$3.17	$1,429,433,949	8 / 7
2026-08-27	$3.17	$1,429,433,949	8 / 7
2026-08-28	$3.17	$1,429,433,949	8 / 7
2026-08-29	$3.17	$1,429,433,949	8 / 7
2026-08-30	$3.17	$1,429,433,949	8 / 7
2026-08-31	$3.17	$1,429,433,949	8 / 7
2026-09-01	$3.08	$1,429,497,544	8 / 7
2026-09-02	$3.16	$1,429,497,544	8 / 7
2026-09-03	$3.16	$1,429,479,510	8 / 7
2026-09-04	$3.15	$1,424,981,373	8 / 7
2026-09-05	$3.23	$1,424,981,373	8 / 7
2026-09-06	$3.23	$1,424,981,373	8 / 7
2026-09-07	$3.23	$1,426,790,051	8 / 7
2026-09-08	$3.23	$1,426,790,051	8 / 7
2026-09-09	$3.23	$1,426,790,051	8 / 7
2026-09-10	$3.23	$1,426,790,051	8 / 7
2026-09-11	$3.23	$1,426,790,051	8 / 7
2026-09-12	$3.23	$1,426,790,051	7 / 7
2026-09-13	$3.23	$1,426,790,051	7 / 7
2026-09-14	$3.23	$1,426,790,051	7 / 7
2026-09-15	$3.23	$1,426,790,051	7 / 7
2026-09-16	$3.23	$1,426,790,051	7 / 7
2026-09-17	$3.23	$1,426,790,051	7 / 7
2026-09-18	$3.23	$1,426,790,051	7 / 7
2026-09-19	$3.23	$1,426,790,051	7 / 7
2026-09-20	$3.23	$1,426,810,088	7 / 7
2026-09-21	$3.23	$1,426,810,088	7 / 7
2026-09-22	$3.23	$1,426,810,088	7 / 7
2026-09-23	$3.23	$1,426,810,088	7 / 7
2026-09-24	$3.23	$1,426,810,088	7 / 7
2026-09-25	$3.23	$1,417,538,680	7 / 7
2026-09-26	$3.23	$1,417,538,680	7 / 7
2026-09-27	$3.23	$1,417,538,680	7 / 7
2026-09-28	$3.23	$1,417,538,680	7 / 7
2026-09-29	$3.23	$1,417,538,680	7 / 7
2026-09-30	$3.23	$1,417,538,680	7 / 7
2026-10-01	$3.23	$1,417,538,680	7 / 7
2026-10-02	$3.23	$1,419,528,589	7 / 7
2026-10-03	$3.16	$1,422,443,079	7 / 7
2026-10-04	$3.16	$1,422,443,079	7 / 7
2026-10-05	$3.16	$1,422,443,079	7 / 7
2026-10-06	$3.12	$1,425,751,709	7 / 7
2026-10-07	$3.12	$1,425,751,709	7 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	$3.12	$1,428,506,136	5 / 5
2026-10-13	$3.12	$1,428,506,136	5 / 5
2026-10-14	$3.12	$1,428,506,136	5 / 5
2026-10-15	$3.12	$1,428,506,136	5 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	12	8
2026-06-01	13	7
2026-07-01	13	7
2026-08-01	14	7
2026-09-01	14	6
2026-10-01	13	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades7 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 7 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 12 · prior Jul 21

$149.00 → $131.00-12.1%

UBSOct 9 · prior Sep 24

$117.00 → $115.00-1.7%

Wells FargoOct 5 · prior Jul 23

$134.00 → $126.00-6.0%

Truist FinancialOct 1 · prior Jun 5

$118.00 → $116.00-1.7%

BarclaysSep 28 · prior Aug 17

$123.00 → $118.00-4.1%

Evercore ISISep 21 · prior Jul 7

$122.00 → $123.00+0.8%

ScotiabankSep 17 · prior May 19

$128.00 → $126.00-1.6%

$0$81.95$163.90

1 raises · 6 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Effective management of capital allocation obligationsQualitative condition
2026 EPS at or above $3.94Diluted EPS: $0.97 per share
Revenue growth near 6% annuallyRevenue growth: 7.76%

Next proof point

Oct 30, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-17.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Federal Realty Investment Trust outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on real estate. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite mixed management execution.

What's priced into Federal Realty Investment Trust

The market appears to price in a neutral valuation, with FRT being considered cheap compared to its peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for growth.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, with management focused on raising earnings guidance and driving leasing volume. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although the industry has a history of erratic surprises.

What Federal Realty Investment Trust hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on external factors such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like SPG and O. Any negative guidance from FRT could significantly impact credibility and investor sentiment.