Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. (PINE)

NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$16.16-7.23%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	20.69M
EPS	—	0.161
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	79.5M
EPS	—	0.589
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	86.5M
EPS	—	0.64

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Disposition volume guidance $30M-$60M for 2026	Capital allocation remains on track with disposition guidance of $30M-$60M.	Intact	Disposition volume falls outside $30M-$60M range in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS of $0.74-$0.78 for FY26	It targets EPS of $0.74-$0.78 in 2026, showing signs of recovery.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.74 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.74 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 22, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 4788f9bd-66fb-46d1-81ca-89e99fded606. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Investment guidance raised to $170M-$200M in 2026	The company raised its 2026 investment guidance to $170M-$200M.	Intact	Investment volume falls below $170 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$0.08B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$81,393,430	3 / 7
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$81,393,430	3 / 7
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$81,393,430	3 / 7
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$82,940,290	3 / 7
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$82,940,290	3 / 7
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$85,012,033	3 / 5
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$82,940,290	3 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$83,952,570	3 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$83,952,570	3 / 7
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$83,952,570	3 / 7
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$83,952,570	3 / 7
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$83,952,570	3 / 7
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$86,193,000	3 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$86,193,000	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$86,193,000	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$86,193,000	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$86,193,000	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$83,436,000	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$83,436,000	4 / 5
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$83,436,000	4 / 5
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$83,436,000	4 / 5
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$83,436,000	4 / 5
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$83,436,000	4 / 5
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$83,436,000	4 / 5
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$83,436,000	3 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	2
2026-06-01	9	3
2026-07-01	10	3
2026-08-01	9	3
2026-09-01	8	3
2026-10-01	8	3

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 23 · prior Oct 13

$21.25 → $20.00-5.9%

Truist FinancialOct 15 · prior May 21

$20.00 → $19.00-5.0%

Industrial Alliance SecuritiesOct 14 · prior Jul 24

$22.50 → $21.50-4.4%

$0$12.38$24.75

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Disposition volume guidance $30M-$60M for 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
EPS of $0.74-$0.78 for FY26Diluted EPS: $0.18 per share
Investment guidance raised to $170M-$200M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-25.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

PINE is a real estate growth and income story, with recent investment activity and a higher dividend supporting its long-term thesis. The thesis is intact, but momentum weakened after the latest earnings report and near-term results merit attention.

What's priced into Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc.

The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure says PINE is cheap versus peers, while another shows a 68% premium to peers. The priced-in tag is justified and fragility is low, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market may be assuming more than current results support.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term performance is less certain after the October earnings miss and a sharp drop in company momentum. For the multi-year view, management raised 2026 AFFO guidance and investment-volume guidance, while reported investment activity and a higher dividend show progress; the full-year AFFO result is not yet reported.

What Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc. hinges on

The next call is important: a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while delivery on the higher outlook would support the thesis. Fed rate cuts and continued strong results from sector peers could help the real estate backdrop, but rates remain a sector headwind.