Reading PHUN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PHUN free→Reading PHUN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PHUN free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.98. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.98, PHUN's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 15× p/s (5.2× the 3× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~-48% near-term growth vs our ~-38% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $3.79 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 48% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -38%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.09x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.13 → $-0.14 (-7.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$203.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$542.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,455.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it could indicate trouble in Phunware's market position. This is critical for future performance.
Confirms:Phunware's revenue growth falls below the sector median.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above the sector median.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PHUN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Master Software and Services Agreement Effective May 13, 2026, Phunware, Inc. (the "Company") entered into a Master Software and Services Agreement (the “MSSA”) with Build Something LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “Developer”), pursuant to which the Company retained the Developer to create, perform and provide software development, solutions, software engineering, software deployment and other technology and intellectual property serv…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PHUN Phunware Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 36 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. The matters described in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Phunware, Inc. (the “Company,” "we," "us," or "our") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release issued concerning the foregoing results is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein, including Exhibit 99.1, is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of t…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K are incorporated herein by reference to the extent applicable. On May 12, 2026, Jeremy Krol notified the Company of his voluntary resignation from the Board of Directors. Mr. Krol’s resignation was not due to any disagreement with the Company, its management, the Board of Directors or any committee thereof, or with respect to any matter relating to the Company’s operations, policies or practices. Upon effectiveness of Mr. Krol’s resignation, the Company’s Bo…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously reported in the Original Form 8-K, Jeremy Krol was appointed to serve as the Company’s Interim Chief Executive Officer. In connection therewith, the Company and Mr. Krol entered into a Confidential Executive Employment Agreement dated July 14, 2025 (the “Employment Agreement”), pursuant to which Mr. Krol agreed to serve as Interim Chief Executive Officer of the Company. The Employment Agreement had an initial term of six months, unless…