Reading PDYN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PDYN free→Reading PDYN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PDYN free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, PDYN is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 200% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $5.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.40, PDYN's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 38× p/s (7.7× the 5× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~202% near-term growth vs our ~-7% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $2.12 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $7.00–$15. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 202% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.20x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.24 → $-0.24 (+0.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 104.1% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$387.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$927.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,727.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for financial health and stability.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations is positive for two quarters in a row.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations will be negative for another quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PDYN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On June 8, 2026, the Company announced that it has entered into a memorandum of understanding (the “MOU”) with Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd., acting through its MBT Missiles Division, Systems, Missiles & Space Group (“IAI”). IAI is wholly owned by the government of Israel. Pursuant to the MOU, the Company will have the exclusive right to manufacture and market to the U.S. government certain IAI loitering munitions systems (each, a “System” and collectively the “Systems”). The…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$7.00 – $15.00 (median $11.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PDYN Palladyne AI Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | expensive | high |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Palladyne AI Corp. aims to expand its partnership with Israel Aerospace Industries to manufacture and market loitering munitions systems to the U.S. government.
Palladyne AI Corp. is focused on addressing its negative cash flow from operations, which has been a recurring issue.
Palladyne AI Corp. is working to improve its net income performance, which has been negative for several quarters.
Why it matters: Progress on this partnership could boost growth and market presence for Palladyne AI.
Confirms:Look for a public announcement about new projects or contracts from the partnership.
Disproves:No new news or delays in the partnership announcements.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows better profits and efficiency.
Confirms:Net income improves year-over-year for two quarters in a row.
Disproves:Net income keeps going down each year.
Why it matters: The MOU could lead to significant contracts, impacting revenue and growth.
Confirms one read:The company secures a contract to manufacture and market IAI systems to the U.S. government.
Confirms the other:The MOU does not lead to any contracts or further developments.
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The description of the Senior Executive Awards (as defined below) in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Palladyne AI Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and certain other information. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Current Report under this
The filing pertains to stockholder approval of an equity plan amendment and restricted stock unit awards, not a management change.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 5, 2026, Palladyne AI Corp. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, and certain other information. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished in this Current Report under this