Reading PAYS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PAYS free→Reading PAYS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PAYS free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, indicating less shareholder-friendly actions. Risk is high, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, PAYS is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.97 PAYS trades at 41× p/e — 1.5× the 28× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $6.46 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 8% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 40%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 7.43x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.07 → $0.08 (+6.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 18.8% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$254.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$516.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,285.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims can show a weak economy. This might hurt Paysign's business.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims are much higher than before.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims go down or stay the same.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PAYS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, we issued a press release regarding our financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. As provided in General Instruction B-2 of SEC Form 8-K, the information set forth in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PAYS Paysign, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | full | high |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims for plasma and pharma to contribute equally to revenue growth.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue grew from $227.6M in 2025-Q4 to $280.4M in 2026-Q1, indicating progress towards balanced growth in plasma and pharma segments. The trajectory shows delivering on this priority.
“We continue to expect plasma and pharma to contribute roughly equally to revenue.”
“Plasma and pharma are expected to contribute equally to revenue growth.”
Management aims to expand margins across the income statement as revenue grows.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Gross profit increased from $13.1M in 2025-Q4 to $18.2M in 2026-Q1, reflecting margin expansion. The trajectory indicates delivering on this priority.
“Margins expanding across the income statement.”
“We expect margins to expand as revenue grows.”
Management aims to nearly double net income over 2025 as patient affordability scales.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Net income grew from $1.4M in 2025-Q4 to $5.4M in 2026-Q1, showing significant progress towards the goal of doubling net income over 2025. The trajectory is delivering on this priority.
“Net income nearly doubling over 2025 as patient affordability scales.”
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a slowdown in the sector. This could hurt Paysign's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median rate.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median rate.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can affect borrowing costs. This may influence Paysign's growth strategy.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows the economy is getting stronger.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers interest rates. This shows there are worries about the economy.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 24, 2026, we issued a press release regarding our financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. As provided in General Instruction B-2 of SEC Form 8-K, the information set forth in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 12, 2025, we issued a press release regarding our financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. As provided in General Instruction B-2 of SEC Form 8-K, the information set forth in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Secti…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On November 25, 2024, Paysign, in its capacity as a nominal defendant, entered into a Stipulation and Agreement of Settlement (the “Stipulation”) to resolve previously-reported stockholder derivative actions (the “Derivative Actions”) pending in the United States District Court for the District of Nevada (the “Court”). The derivative actions consist of the actions entitled Toczek v. Newcomer, et al ., D. Nev. Case No. 2:20-cv-01722-JCM-NJK; Gray v. Attinger, et al .,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2025, we issued a press release regarding our financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. As provided in General Instruction B-2 of SEC Form 8-K, the information set forth in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 o…
“We expect net income to nearly double over 2025.”