Reading PATH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PATH free→Reading PATH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PATH free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, PATH is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 30% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because it trades below peer multiples, but earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.54. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $11 PATH trades at 14× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $16 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $12–$15. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 34% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.17x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.15 → $0.15 (-1.9% / 30d). 10 raised, 5 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 15% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 2.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$189.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$615.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,137.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: When revenue meets or beats guidance, it shows strong demand for UiPath's automation tools.
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported in the range of $395 million to $400 million, exceeding $400 million.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $395 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for PATH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 28, 2026, UiPath, Inc. (“UiPath” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal first quarter 2027. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$12.00 – $15.00 (median $13.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PATH UiPath | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=797).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Increase cash flow from operations to support growth and investment.
Why it matters: Maintaining revenue growth above 20% shows strong demand for UiPath's products. It confirms the company's growth strategy is on track.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 20% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Growing net new ARR shows strong customer growth and loyalty.
Confirms:Net new ARR reported above $49 million.
Disproves:Net new ARR reported below $49 million.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may impact UiPath's performance. It indicates broader market challenges.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Better operating income means lower costs and more profit. This is key for success.
Confirms:Operating income is better this quarter than in Q1.
Disproves:Operating income is worse this quarter than in Q1.
Why it matters: Strong ARR growth means good customer retention and more use of automation.
Confirms:ARR reported at least $1.929 billion, showing growth of 12% YoY or more.
Disproves:ARR growth reported below 12% YoY.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is a key focus. A strong Q2 result would show progress.
Confirms:Q2 2027 operating income exceeds $50M.
Disproves:Q2 2027 operating income drops below $20M.
Why it matters: More cash from operations shows strong finances. This helps with growth investments.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported above $50 million in Q2.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported below $50 million in Q2.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 24, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of UiPath, Inc. (the “Company”) appointed Raghavendra Malpani, the Company’s current Chief Technology Officer, as the Company’s Chief Product and Technology Officer, effective March 25, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Malpani, 48, has served as the Company’s Chie…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 11, 2026, UiPath, Inc. (“UiPath” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Other Events Stock Repurchase Program On March 5, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company authorized a stock repurchase program pursuant to which we may repurchase from time to time up to $500 million of our outstanding shares of Class A common stock. Repurchases under the program may be effected through open market purchases, privately-negotiated transactions, or otherwise in accordance with applicable federal securities laws, including through Rule 10b5-1 trading plans and under Rule 10…