Reading OSPN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OSPN free→Reading OSPN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OSPN free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, OSPN is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 52% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues with earnings quality. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.23. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 OSPN trades at 14× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $29 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 51% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.83x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.23 → $0.23 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$121.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$452.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,204.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Higher ARR expectations would show growth and trust in future revenue.
Confirms:Management says ARR will be higher than it is now.
Disproves:Management does not change ARR expectations or lowers them.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OSPN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers As discussed in
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Systems Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OSPN OneSpan, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MSFT Microsoft | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | full | moderate |
PANW Palo Alto Networks | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CRWD CrowdStrike | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 31 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FTNT Fortinet | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
OneSpan aims to increase its total revenue to between $244 million and $249 million for the full year 2026.
OneSpan aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA in the range of $64 million to $68 million for the full year 2026.
OneSpan has updated its financial guidance to reflect an increase in its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) expectations.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA results will show if OneSpan is getting closer to its $64M-$68M goal.
Confirms one read:Adjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds $68M for 2026.
Confirms the other:Adjusted EBITDA falls below $64M for 2026.
Why it matters: An update on revenue guidance will show if OneSpan is on track to meet its 2026 target.
Confirms one read:Management raises revenue guidance to $244M or higher for 2026.
Confirms the other:Management cuts revenue guidance to below $244M for 2026.
in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Other Events On May 7, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of OneSpan Inc. (the “Company”) terminated the stock repurchase program adopted by the Board on May 9, 2024 and adopted a new stock repurchase program (the “Repurchase Program”) under which the Company is authorized to repurchase up to $50 million of the Company’s issued and outstanding shares of common stock, exclusive of any fees, commissions, or other expenses related to such repurchases, on or prior to May 7, 2028. The Repu…
in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
in this Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.