OneSpan, Inc. (OSPN)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-30
$25.66+27.34%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-10-30
Research Workspace
Put OSPN beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Systems Software: fringe margins under pressure (2q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
The reason to own it still holds.
View ThesisRevenue is growing steadily — about 5% over the past year.
View GrowthManagement screens strong on capital allocation, the balance sheet.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 33% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskOneSpan's DigipassONE rollout must expand to sustain revenue growth and support its 2026 revenue objective. Revenue growth accelerated from 1% in Q2 to 12% in Q3, when results beat estimates. OSPN trades at 16× P/E versus a 46× peer median and its own 14× historical multiple. The price reflects less growth than our forecast, despite the large peer gap. The next-quarter miss probability is 27%, putting the growth case at risk. Peer multiples imply a price about 4% above where it trades; our read remains intact, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. OSPN is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 5 analysts currently covering OSPN (as of Oct 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare OSPN with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSPN Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-30. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Systems Software — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put OSPN next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Increase total revenue to $248M-$252M in 2026
Revenue outlook exceeds the $248M-$252M target, supported by expanding DigipassONE rollout.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Increase total revenue to $248M-$252M in 2026
Q3 results beat estimates and shares rose, supporting confidence in the 2026 revenue target.
Advances: Increase Adjusted EBITDA to $67M-$71M in 2026
Earnings and revenue beat estimates, supporting profitability and growth objectives.
Advances: Increase Adjusted EBITDA to $67M-$71M in 2026
EPS and revenue materially exceeded estimates, supporting profitability and growth objectives.
Threatens: Increase total revenue to $248M-$252M in 2026
Muted growth impacts revenue targets for 2026.
Threatens: Increase Adjusted EBITDA to $67M-$71M in 2026
Shrinking bottom line impacts Adjusted EBITDA growth objective.
Advances: Increase total revenue to $248M-$252M in 2026
Analyst upgrade reflects confidence in revenue growth potential.
Advances: Increase revenue to $244M-$249M in 2026
Q2 2026 results exceed expectations, boosting revenue outlook.
