Reading NXPL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NXPL free→Reading NXPL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NXPL free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
As of June 15, 2026, NXPL shows weak recent financial performance and volatile management, with a capital-unfriendly stance. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is high. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, but compared to sector peers, NXPL trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 90% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.14. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.14 NXPL trades at 0× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $59 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 90% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 46%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.69x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$400.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$900.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,204.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'cautious' to 'mixed'.
Valuation label changed from 'None' to 'inexpensive'.
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and rose, with the valuation label now indicating that NXPL is inexpensive. The sector backdrop remains a tailwind, while risk is still high. The company continues to show loss-making earnings quality and volatile management. The recent financial performance is weak, and the capital stance is considered unfriendly.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below median, it signals a weakening position in a growing sector.
Confirms:NextPlat's revenue growth reported below the sector median growth rate.
Disproves:NextPlat's revenue growth remains above the sector median growth rate.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NXPL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 14, 2026, NextPlat Corp (the “Registrant”) issued a press release announcing certain financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Registrant, whether made before or after the date hereof, regardless of any general…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2023-Q2, 2023-Q3, 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NXPL NextPlat Corp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 18 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve positive operating income by the third quarter of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income was negative in 2026-Q1 at -$1.1M, showing limited progress towards the goal. Management's expectation of positive operating income in Q3 2026 remains a target, but financials indicate a challenging trajectory.
“Management expects positive operating income in Q3 2026.”
“We anticipate achieving positive operating income in Q3 2026.”
Management plans to reduce operating expenses to improve profitability in 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Operating expenses have not shown a clear reduction trend, with operating income remaining negative at -$1.1M in 2026-Q1. The plan to reduce expenses is in place, but financials indicate limited progress so far.
“Management expects reduced levels of operating expenses throughout 2026.”
Focus on adding higher margin contracted healthcare services revenue to improve profitability.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Revenue declined from $13.4M in 2025-Q4 to $9.9M in 2026-Q1, indicating a challenging environment. The focus on higher margin healthcare services is a strategic shift, but financials show limited progress in revenue growth.
“Addition of higher margin contracted healthcare services revenue expected.”
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard; Transfer of Listing. As previously disclosed, on April 28, 2025, NextPlat Corp (the “Company”) received a written notice (the “Notice”) from the Listing Qualifications Department (the “Staff”) of The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) notifying the Company that, because the closing bid price for the Company’s common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), closed below $1.00 per share for 30 consec…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On March 31, 2026, NextPlat Corp (the “Registrant”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations and financial condition for its most recent fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 (“Earnings Press Release”). A copy of the Earnings Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained herein and in the accompanying exhibit shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Re…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed, on October 13, 2025, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of NextPlat Corp (the “Company”) unanimously voted to appoint Amanda L. Ferrio to serve as Chief Financial Officer of the Company effective immediately. On January 9, 2026, the Company entered into an Employment Agreement (the “Agreement”) with Ms. Ferrio (the “Emplo…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 5, 2025, NextPlat Corp (the “Company”) and Barreto Group, Inc. (“Barreto Group”) entered into a consulting agreement (the “Agreement”) pursuant to which Barreto Group is engaged to provide business development and strategic consulting services to the Company and its wholly owned subsidiaries. Barreto Group is owned and controlled by Rodney Barreto, who serves as the Chairman of the Company’s Board of Directors. The Agreement provides for…