Reading NRDY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NRDY free→Reading NRDY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NRDY free→NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 80% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $0.94. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $0.94 NRDY trades at 1× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $4.79 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 80% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.42x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.01 → $-0.02 (-100.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$181.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$542.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,526.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its financial situation. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a revenue increase year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a revenue decline year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NRDY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Consulting Agreement, Departure Agreement, and General Release with Former Chief Financial Officer On April 6, 2026, Nerdy Inc. (the “Company”) filed a Current Report on Form 8-K announcing that Jason Pello ceased serving as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer effective April 3, 2026. In connection with Mr. Pello’s previously announced separation…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NRDY Nerdy, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve approximately breakeven non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently aimed for breakeven non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA for 2026. However, financials show a net income loss of $4.075M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards this goal.
“We expect non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA to be approximately breakeven.”
“For the full year of 2026, we expect non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA to be approximately breakeven.”
“For the full year, we expect a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss in the range of $19-21 million.”
Management has reaffirmed its revenue guidance for the full year 2026 to be between $180 million and $190 million.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue for 2026-Q1 was $48.735M, indicating a positive start towards the $180-$190M annual target. Management's reaffirmation suggests confidence, but continued performance is needed to meet the full-year guidance.
Management expects to end 2026 with a cash position between $40 million and $45 million.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management aims to maintain a cash position of $40-$45M by year-end. Current financials do not provide a cash position, making it difficult to assess progress. The trajectory remains uncertain without further data.
“We expect to end 2026 with $40-45 million of cash.”
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may hurt Nerdy's performance. This could signal a broader slowdown.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median for the last year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Nerdy Inc. issued press releases announcing results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. Copies of the press releases are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in Item 2.02, Exhibit 99.1, and Exhibit 99.2 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or ot…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 6, 2026, we announced the following changes to our executive management team: Departure of Jason Pello as Chief Financial Officer On March 31, 2026, Jason Pello, our Chief Financial Officer, was notified of the Company’s decision to engage a new Chief Financial Officer effective April 6, 2026 and to end his service as Chief Financial Offic…
Notice of Delisting or Failure to Satisfy a Continued Listing Rule or Standard Transfer of Listing. On March 5, 2026, Nerdy Inc. (the “Company”) was notified by the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) that it is not in compliance with the continued listing criteria under Section 802.01C of the NYSE Listed Company Manual because the average closing price of the Company’s Class A Common Stock was less than $1.00 over a consecutive 30 trading-day period. The Company notified the NYSE on March 6…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Nerdy Inc. issued press releases announcing results for its fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. Copies of the press releases are furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in Item 2.02, Exhibit 99.1, and Exhibit 99.2 attached hereto shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Ex…
“We are reaffirming our full year 2026 outlook of $180 to $190 million in revenue.”
“For the full year of 2026, we expect revenue in the range of $180-$190 million.”
“For the full year, we expect revenue in the range of $175-177 million.”