Reading NAII? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NAII free→Reading NAII? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track NAII free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 86% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples, but recent financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile, historically a value-trap pattern. If NAII cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.52. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $2.52 NAII trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $18 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 86% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.31x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=491).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$146.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$537.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,907.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice on interest rates can change how much people spend and borrow.
Confirms one read:An interest rate cut signals easier borrowing, which may boost consumer spending.
Confirms the other:An interest rate hike means borrowing is harder, which may lower consumer spending.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for NAII yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers Michael E. Fortin has given his notice of resignation as the Chief Financial Officer of the Company effective May 15, 2026. Mr. Fortin has accepted an offer to become the CFO for another company with increased responsibilities and opportunities for his professional growth. While the Company seeks a replacement Chief Financial Officer, Kenneth E. Wol…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NAII Natural Alternatives International Inc | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 9 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 46 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 78 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on enhancing cash flow from operations to stabilize financial performance.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities improved from -$6.33M in 2026-Q2 to $2.50M in 2026-Q3, indicating progress towards stabilizing financial performance. The trajectory shows delivering on this priority.
“CFO: 'We are committed to improving cash flow from operations to support our financial stability.'”
“CFO: 'Enhancing cash flow from operations remains a key focus.'”
“CFO: 'Our priority is to improve cash flow from operations.'”
Strive to achieve profitability by managing costs and increasing revenue.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Despite efforts, net income declined from -$2.55M in 2026-Q2 to -$4.31M in 2026-Q3, indicating limited progress towards profitability. The trajectory shows challenges in achieving this priority.
Focus on improving gross profit margins through cost efficiencies and pricing strategies.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Gross profit decreased from $2.49M in 2026-Q2 to $0.38M in 2026-Q3, showing limited progress in enhancing margins. The trajectory indicates challenges in achieving this priority.
Why it matters: GDP growth affects overall economic health. Strong growth can lead to increased consumer spending.
Confirms one read:GDP growth above 3% shows a strong economy. This likely boosts sales.
Confirms the other:GDP growth below 1% shows a weak economy. This likely hurts sales.
Why it matters: This report shows how people are spending money. It can affect demand for Natural Alternatives' products.
Confirms one read:Retail sales growth above 5% year over year shows strong consumer demand.
Confirms the other:Retail sales growth below 0% year over year shows weak consumer spending.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers The Amended and Restated Employment Agreement dated October 1, 2015, by and between Natural Alternatives International, Inc. and Mark A. LeDoux, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, as most recently amended by the Second Amendment dated July 1, 2021, was amended effective May 1, 2026, (the "NAI Amendment"). The NAI Amendment reflects a decrease in…
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. Natural Alternatives International, Inc., a Delaware corporation, ("NAI") is party to a Credit Agreement (most recently amended June 20, 2025) with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association ("Wells Fargo"). The Credit Agreement as amended incorporates a Revolving Line of Credit Note, a Term Note, Security Agreement and Deed of Trust. For its fiscal first quarter ended September 30, 2025, NAI was not in compliance with the maximum net loss and fixed cha…
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On July 16, 2025, Natural Alternatives International, Inc. (“NAI”) and its wholly owned subsidiary Natural Alternatives International, Europe S.A., entered into a Manufacturing Agreement with its longtime customer the Juice Plus+ Company, LLC to be effective July 16, 2025, and replacing the similar existing agreement set to expire August 6, 2025. The Agreement sets forth the terms and conditions for NAI to manufacture and supply Juice Plus+ with Jui…
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. On June 20, 2025 Natural Alternatives International, Inc., a Delaware corporation, ("NAI") entered into an amended credit facility with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association ("Wells Fargo"). The amended credit facility extends NAI's current credit facility with Wells Fargo to December 31, 2026, decreases the maximum principal amount that can be borrowed from $12,500,000 to $10,000,000, and adds the Company’s powder processing facility in Carlsbad C…
“CEO: 'Our goal is to return to profitability by managing costs and driving revenue growth.'”
“CEO: 'We are focused on achieving profitability through cost management and revenue enhancement.'”
“CEO: 'Profitability remains a key objective as we manage costs and seek revenue growth.'”
“CEO: 'We aim to enhance our gross profit margins by optimizing costs and pricing.'”
“CEO: 'Improving gross profit margins is a priority through cost and pricing strategies.'”
“CEO: 'Our focus is on enhancing gross profit margins by managing costs effectively.'”