Reading MXL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MXL free→Reading MXL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MXL free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed because the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, MXL is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 121% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $88.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $84 MXL trades at 16× p/s — 1.4× the 12× p/s peer median, and above its own 3× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $38 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $30–$110. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 121% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.17x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.33 → $0.33 (+0.0% / 30d). 10 raised, 0 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 64% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.5% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$304.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$675.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,965.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show if MaxLinear is growing revenue as planned. Investors will closely watch the numbers.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MXL yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Changes in Registrant’s Certifying Accountant. (a) Dismissal of Independent Registered Public Accounting Firm On May 28, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), MaxLinear, Inc. (the “Company”) dismissed Grant Thornton LLP (“Grant Thornton”) as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm, effective immediately. The dismissal of Grant Thornton has been approved by the audit committee of the board of directors of the Company (the “Audit Committee”). Grant Thornton’s report on the Company’s…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$30.00 – $110.00 (median $57.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MXL MaxLinear, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 27 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Aim to enhance gross profit margin through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on managing operating income through cost control and operational efficiency.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing. It will reveal its financial and operational health.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows a profit or positive guidance.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows a loss or negative guidance.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating guidance shows strong demand in the optical data center market.
Confirms:Q2 net revenue reported at or above $160 million.
Disproves:Q2 net revenue reported below $160 million.
Why it matters: Changes in operating costs can impact profits and cash flow.
Confirms one read:GAAP operating costs reported at or below $91 million.
Confirms the other:GAAP operating costs are over $97 million.
Why it matters: Improving margins are key to MaxLinear's financial health. This will show how well costs are managed.
Confirms:Gross profit margin improves by more than 1% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Gross profit margin declines by more than 1% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Improving margins show the company is managing costs well. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Gross profit margin increases to above 55% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Gross profit margin stays below 50% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Improving operating income shows better cost management. This could lead to higher stock value.
Confirms:Operating income improves to above -$10M in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating income remains below -$20M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Legal problems can lower investor trust. They can also impact how the company runs.
Confirms:No new legal problems come from the dismissal of Grant Thornton.
Disproves:New legal problems arise from the accountant dismissal.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising gross margin shows good cost control and strong product demand.
Confirms:GAAP gross margin reported at or above 56%.
Disproves:GAAP gross margin reported below 56%.
Why it matters: The change in accountants could affect financial reporting. This is important for investor trust.
Confirms:The new accounting firm gave good feedback on financial reporting.
Disproves:Negative findings or issues reported by the new accounting firm.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers At our 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”), stockholders approved (i) an amendment and restatement of the MaxLinear, Inc. Amended and Restated 2010 Equity Incentive Plan (as amended and restated, the “Amended and Restated Equity Incentive Plan”), including (a) the approval of a new ten-year term and (b) an increase in the numb…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, MaxLinear issued a press release announcing its unaudited financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibits 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K, and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibits attached hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securi…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 22, 2026, MaxLinear, Inc. (“MaxLinear”) entered into an Amendment No. 2 to Credit Agreement (the “Second Amendment”), by and among MaxLinear, Exar Corporation, a Delaware corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of MaxLinear, MaxLinear Communications, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly-owned subsidiary of MaxLinear, the lenders party thereto and Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent and collate…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth under