MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$71.51+7.53%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
MaxLinear grew revenue 43% year over year to $137M in Q1 2026. Gross profit rose from $44M to nearly $79M in the same period. Operating losses shrank from $67M to $17M, showing better cost control. Management is focused on growth and margin improvement.
The company is still loss-making with operating income negative at $17M in Q1 2026. The stock fell 33% from its high and trades at a very high PE of 150. Profitability and cash flow remain uncertain. A recent auditor change raises risk.
The market prices in about 35% revenue growth and values shares roughly 39% above our fair value near $62. Our fair value aligns with the Street median. The price reflects optimism despite the company still losing money.
Breaks if: Gross margin falls below 55% next quarter
Maintain and improve GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins through operational efficiency and product mix.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. GAAP gross margin improved from 54.4% in 2024-Q3 to 57.5% in 2026-Q1. Guidance for 2026-Q3 projects GAAP gross margin between 57.0% and 60.0%. Management's focus on margin improvement is reflected in stable to improving gross margins, indicating progress on this priority.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround opportunity in the tech sector. MXL is currently navigating challenges, including loss-making status and mixed management execution, while aiming for revenue growth and margin improvement.
The market currently reflects a justified valuation with a low expectations gap. MXL is priced at a premium compared to peers, suggesting that some positive developments may already be anticipated.
Management is focused on enhancing revenue growth and controlling operating expenses, with recent financial performance showing some improvement. However, the company remains loss-making, and the recent decline in company quality raises concerns.
Key factors for MXL's future include guidance updates from management, potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, and the performance of sector leaders like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO. These elements could significantly influence market sentiment and MXL's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats identified that could weaken the thesis.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“GAAP gross margin was 57.5%, compared to 57.6% in prior quarter, and 56.1% in year-ago quarter.”
“GAAP gross margin was 57.6%, compared to 56.9% in prior quarter, and 55.6% in year-ago quarter.”
“GAAP gross margin was 56.9%, compared to 56.5% in prior quarter, and 54.4% in year-ago quarter.”
Breaks if: Management abandons growth or margin priorities
Maintain and improve GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins through operational efficiency and product mix.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. GAAP gross margin improved from 54.4% in 2024-Q3 to 57.5% in 2026-Q1. Guidance for 2026-Q3 projects GAAP gross margin between 57.0% and 60.0%. Management's focus on margin improvement is reflected in stable to improving gross margins, indicating progress on this priority.
“GAAP gross margin was 57.5%, compared to 57.6% in prior quarter, and 56.1% in year-ago quarter.”
“GAAP gross margin was 57.6%, compared to 56.9% in prior quarter, and 55.6% in year-ago quarter.”
“GAAP gross margin was 56.9%, compared to 56.5% in prior quarter, and 54.4% in year-ago quarter.”
Focus on managing operating income through cost control and operational efficiency.
Drive sustained revenue growth through expanding optical data center connectivity and other high-value markets.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $95.9M in 2025-Q1 to $137.2M in 2026-Q1, a 43% year-over-year increase. Infrastructure segment grew over 130% year-over-year in 2026-Q1. Management consistently emphasizes sustained growth and expanding optical data center connectivity, indicating delivery on this priority.
Breaks if: Operating loss worsens beyond -$20 million next year
Focus on managing operating income through cost control and operational efficiency.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $130 million next quarter
Drive sustained revenue growth through expanding optical data center connectivity and other high-value markets.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $95.9M in 2025-Q1 to $137.2M in 2026-Q1, a 43% year-over-year increase. Infrastructure segment grew over 130% year-over-year in 2026-Q1. Management consistently emphasizes sustained growth and expanding optical data center connectivity, indicating delivery on this priority.
“Q1 marks the start of a multi-year growth phase... Revenue grew 43% year over year... infrastructure growing more than 130%”
“Our new products gained solid traction... on a strong path for sustained revenue growth and market share expansion in 2026 and 2027.”
“Strong sequential and year-over-year growth... focused investments... enabling broadening customer traction and sustained growth in 2026.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MXL's performance will depend on its ability to execute on management priorities and navigate sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
“Q1 marks the start of a multi-year growth phase... Revenue grew 43% year over year... infrastructure growing more than 130%”
“Our new products gained solid traction... on a strong path for sustained revenue growth and market share expansion in 2026 and 2027.”
“Strong sequential and year-over-year growth... focused investments... enabling broadening customer traction and sustained growth in 2026.”