MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$63.46-2.79%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MaxLinear, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+68.2% · beyond scale

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.70 → 4.53 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	$240M–$260MGAAP $240M–$260Mnon-GAAP	250.25M
EPS	—	0.786
Gross margin	59%–62%non-GAAP 58%–61%GAAP	—
Operating expenses	$96M–$101MGAAP $65M–$70Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	763.65M
EPS	—	1.992
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.27B
EPS	—	4.534

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Gross margin near 57.5% next quarter	A primary condition in MaxLinear, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~57.5%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 55% next quarter	Gross margin: 58.73% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~57.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Oct 22, 202658.73235 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5836f535-ec34-427d-986a-77981414147f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 supplied quarters. GAAP gross margin rose from 56.9% in 2025-Q3 to 58.7% in 2026-Q3. The measured margin improvement is substantive delivery and matches the recurring focus on margins. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Management maintains focus on growth and margin priorities	Management is focused on growth and margin improvement.	Improving	Management abandons growth or margin priorities	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 supplied quarters. GAAP gross margin rose from 56.9% in 2025-Q3 to 58.7% in 2026-Q3. The measured margin improvement is substantive delivery and matches the recurring focus on margins. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating loss improves toward break-even	A primary condition in MaxLinear, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss less negative than -$17 million.	Intact	Operating loss worsens beyond -$20 million next year	Operating income: $30.227M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss less negative than -$17 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 22, 202630,227,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5836f535-ec34-427d-986a-77981414147f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to at least $135M next quarter	A primary condition in MaxLinear, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $135 million.	Intact	Revenue falls below $130 million next quarter	Revenue: $218.057M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $135 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Oct 22, 2026218,057,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 5836f535-ec34-427d-986a-77981414147f. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$4.53

$1.91 → $4.53 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.27B

$0.79B → $1.27B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.91	$794,944,320	10 / 10
2026-07-25	$2.22	$883,474,320	9 / 10
2026-07-26	$2.22	$883,474,320	9 / 10
2026-07-27	$2.58	$940,735,000	6 / 8
2026-07-28	$2.58	$953,665,480	11 / 11
2026-07-29	$2.58	$953,665,480	11 / 11
2026-07-30	$2.58	$953,665,480	11 / 11
2026-07-31	$2.58	$953,665,480	11 / 11
2026-08-01	$2.58	$940,735,000	6 / 8
2026-08-02	$2.58	$953,665,480	11 / 11
2026-08-03	$2.58	$953,665,480	11 / 11
2026-08-04	$2.58	$953,665,480	11 / 11
2026-08-05	$2.58	$940,735,000	6 / 8
2026-08-06	$2.58	$940,735,000	6 / 8
2026-08-07	$2.58	$940,735,000	6 / 8
2026-08-08	$2.58	$940,735,000	6 / 8
2026-08-09	$2.58	$940,735,000	6 / 8
2026-08-10	$2.58	$953,665,480	11 / 11
2026-08-12	$2.58	$953,665,480	11 / 11
2026-08-13	$2.58	$953,665,480	11 / 11
2026-08-14	$2.58	$940,735,000	6 / 8
2026-08-15	$2.58	$940,735,000	6 / 8
2026-08-16	$2.58	$940,735,000	6 / 8
2026-08-17	$2.58	$940,735,000	6 / 8
2026-08-18	$2.58	$940,735,000	6 / 8
2026-08-19	$2.58	$940,735,000	6 / 8
2026-08-20	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-08-21	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-08-22	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-08-23	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-08-24	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-08-25	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-08-26	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-08-27	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-08-28	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-08-29	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-08-30	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-08-31	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-01	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-02	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-03	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-04	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-05	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-06	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-07	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-08	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-09	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-10	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-11	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-12	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-13	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-14	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-15	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 8
2026-09-16	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$2.70	$964,150,000	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$2.70	$964,199,510	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$2.70	$964,199,510	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$2.75	$981,265,009	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$2.75	$981,265,009	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$4.53	$1,266,175,909	6 / 8

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	4
2026-06-01	7	4
2026-07-01	7	4
2026-08-01	7	4
2026-09-01	7	4
2026-10-01	7	4

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

SusquehannaOct 23 · prior Jul 24

$80.00 → $70.00-12.5%

Wells FargoOct 20 · prior Jul 20

$75.00 → $78.00+4.0%

$0$44.00$88.00

1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Gross margin near 57.5% next quarterGross margin: 58.73%
Management maintains focus on growth and margin prioritiesDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Operating loss improves toward break-evenOperating income: $30.227M
Revenue grows to at least $135M next quarterRevenue: $218.057M

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

4.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MaxLinear, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk growth and recovery thesis, not yet a proven durable compounder. The thesis state is watch: execution has improved in some areas, but recent earnings weakened the overall signal.

What's priced into MaxLinear, Inc.

The valuation model shows MXL at a premium to peers, with low confidence in that comparison and expectations broadly aligned with the available fundamentals. The priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility, but the evidence does not support a clear claim that expectations are easy to meet.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the October earnings miss and erratic surprise history raise execution risk, while momentum and the composite signal have weakened. Across the multi-year view, infrastructure revenue has grown and operating results improved, though continued progress on profitability remains important.

What MaxLinear, Inc. hinges on

The key company-specific test is whether MXL can sustain growth in optical data center and infrastructure revenue while managing expenses; another guidance cut would be a meaningful negative. Favorable sector conditions could help, including easier interest rates or continued strong results from large technology companies, but these are outside MXL’s control.