Reading MOG-A? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MOG-A free→Reading MOG-A? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MOG-A free→NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future results. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $401.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $398 MOG-A trades at 39× p/e, in line with its 38× p/e peer median. Our $386 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 3% near-term growth, below our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.59x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.64 → $2.64 (+0.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$115.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$259.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,882.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation changed. The valuation label rose from "fair" to "full." Risk remained moderate. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Recent financial performance is strong. Management is volatile.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows good financial health. It also shows care for shareholders. A cut might mean problems.
Confirms one read:Announcement of a dividend increase beyond $0.30 per share.
Confirms the other:Announcement of a dividend cut or no increase.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MOG-A yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
No upside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
No downside scenarios in the latest snapshot.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise be subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as expressly stated by specific reference in such a filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MOG-A Moog Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | full | moderate |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Continue to increase dividends to shareholders as part of capital allocation strategy.
Enhance operating income through efficiency and cost management.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. It also shows more efficiency.
Confirms:Operating income was higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income was lower than last quarter.
Why it matters: A growing backlog indicates strong future demand. If backlog growth slows, it could signal weakening market conditions.
Confirms:Backlog growth reported above 30% year over year.
Disproves:Backlog growth reported below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Exceeding this growth rate would signal a positive shift in Moog's growth trajectory.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 6% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Consistent dividend growth shows strong cash flow. It also shows management cares about shareholders.
Confirms:Dividend per share remains at or above $0.30 in the next quarterly update.
Disproves:Dividend per share drops below $0.30 in the next quarterly update.
Why it matters: Slowing revenue growth could signal weakening demand in Moog's key markets. This would impact future earnings expectations.
Confirms:Q3 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q3 revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income means Moog is controlling costs well. This helps them make more money.
Confirms:Operating income exceeds $137.94M in the next quarter.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $137.94M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is key for funding growth and dividends. A drop below 60% could raise concerns about cash management.
Confirms:Free cash flow conversion reported below 60%.
Disproves:Free cash flow conversion stays at or above 60%.
Other Events On April 24, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing that the Company’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share on the Company's issued and outstanding shares of Class A common stock and Class B common stock. The dividend will be paid on May 21, 2026 to all shareholders of record as of the close of business on May 12, 2026. A copy of the press release is included as Exhibit 99.2 of this report.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 24, 2026, Moog Inc. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced offer and sale of $500 million aggregate principal amount of 5.500% senior notes due 2034 (the “Notes”). Indenture The Notes were issued pursuant to an indenture, dated as of March 24, 2026 (the “Indenture”), by and among the Company, the guarantors from time to time party thereto and Truist Bank, as trustee, which includes a form of Note. The Notes will pay interest sem…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. Effective as of April 3, 2026 (the “Redemption Date”), Moog Inc. (the “Company”) redeemed in full (the “Redemption”) all $500 million aggregate principal amount of its outstanding 4.250% Senior Notes due 2027 at a redemption price equal to 100.000% of the principal amount thereof plus accrued and unpaid interest to, but not including, the Redemption Date, and the indenture, dated as of December 13, 2019, by and among the Company, the guarantors…
Triggering Events That Accelerate or Increase a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement. On March 4, 2026, the Company issued a conditional notice of redemption to redeem in full (the “Redemption”) all $500 million aggregate principal amount of its outstanding 4.250% Senior Notes due 2027 (the “2027 Notes”). The Redemption is expected to occur on April 3, 2026 (the “Redemption Date”), subject to the satisfaction or waiver by the Company of a conditi…