Moog Inc. (MOG-A)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
$367.51-0.57%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Moog grows sales about 13% yearly across aerospace and defense. Profit margins improved to 13.1% in Q2 2026. Free cash flow turned positive at $98 million in Q2. The company raised EPS guidance to about $10.6 for Q3 2026.
Moog trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio of 40.4, above peers. Free cash flow progress is mixed with prior negative quarters. Management is volatile, which may affect execution. Rising costs or weaker demand could pressure margins and growth.
The stock price is about 57% above our fair value near $263. Analysts expect roughly 8% revenue growth, while Moog targets higher growth. The market prices in strong growth and margin expansion, which may be optimistic given risks.
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.29 next year
Sustain quarterly dividend growth and exercise disciplined capital allocation including debt management and share repurchases.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and margin improvement. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance, but it carries medium confidence due to management volatility and sector challenges.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation stance, with a slight premium compared to peers. There is an expectations gap of 0.24, indicating that some growth is already factored into the stock's current valuation.
Management is on track to increase revenue growth and operating margins, with recent results showing strong performance. However, free cash flow generation is mixed, and there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, though recent trends in earnings surprises are declining.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could boost MOG-A. Conversely, if they start to miss earnings or guide lower, MOG-A may face headwinds.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Recent earnings showed record sales and strong revenue growth. The company raised its 2026 guidance, which supports a positive outlook. Adjusted EPS guidance also boosts profitability expectations. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company increased quarterly dividends from $0.29 to $0.30 per share in 2026-Q2 and maintained it in 2026-Q3. Capital allocation included issuance of $500M senior notes and redemption of $500M 2027 notes in 2026-Q1. Management is delivering on dividend growth and disciplined capital actions.
“Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share on July 31, 2026.”
“Board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share on April 24, 2026.”
“Completed $500 million senior notes issuance and redeemed $500 million of 2027 notes in Q1 2026.”
Breaks if: Free cash flow conversion falls below 50% next year
Focus on generating strong free cash flow and improving free cash flow conversion ratio through earnings and working capital management.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Free cash flow improved from a use of $79M in 2026-Q1 to positive $98M in 2026-Q2 and $133M in 2026-Q3. Management reaffirmed and then increased free cash flow conversion guidance from 60% to 70% for 2026. The trajectory shows significant progress in cash generation.
“Free cash flow for the quarter was $133 million, driven by strong earnings.”
“Free cash flow for the quarter was $98 million, driven by strong earnings and working capital management.”
“Free cash flow was a use of $79 million, driven primarily by cash used by physical inventories to support growth.”
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 12% next year
Focus on improving operating margin and adjusted operating margin through profitable sales growth, pricing, and operational performance.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating margin improved from 11.4% in 2025-Q1 to 12.3% in 2026-Q1, 11.7% in 2025-Q2 to 13.1% in 2026-Q2, and 11.5% in 2025-Q3 to 15.8% in 2026-Q3. Management consistently emphasized profitable sales growth and operational performance, and the financials show delivering on margin expansion.
“Operating margin in the third quarter of 2026 was 15.8%, an increase of 430 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2025.”
“Operating margin in the second quarter of 2026 increased 140 basis points to 13.1%, compared to the second quarter of 2025.”
“Operating margin in the first quarter of 2026 increased 90 basis points to 12.3%, compared to the first quarter of 2025.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below ~8% next year
Drive robust sales growth in all four business segments including Space and Defense, Military Aircraft, Commercial Aircraft, and Industrial.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $907.9M in 2025-Q1 to $1.100B in 2026-Q1 (+21%), $934.0M in 2025-Q2 to $1.052B in 2026-Q2 (+13%), and $970.0M in 2025-Q3 to $1.117B in 2026-Q3 (+15%). Management consistently emphasized robust growth across all segments and the financials confirm delivering on this priority.
“Sales in the third quarter of 2026 were $1.1 billion, an increase of 15% compared to the third quarter of 2025.”
“Net sales increased, reflecting robust growth across all four segments.”
“Record net sales in each of our segments.”
Overall, MOG-A's fundamentals are strong, but the investment carries risks related to sector performance and management execution. Not investment advice.