Reading MITK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, MITK is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 MITK trades at 18× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $17 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.90x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.28 → $0.28 (+0.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$210.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$422.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,801.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can impact market conditions and investor sentiment. This could affect Mitek's stock.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates or signals a tightening stance.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps interest rates steady or signals a loosening stance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MITK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MITK Mitek Systems, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | moderate |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Mitek has raised its revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026, reflecting positive business momentum.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue guidance increased from $185-$195M to $189-$198M, reflecting positive business momentum. The trajectory is delivering on the raised guidance.
“Mitek is raising its revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for the fiscal year.”
“Mitek is raising its revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for the fiscal year.”
“Total revenue $185 - $195 million.”
Mitek has repaid its 0.750% Convertible Senior Notes due February 1, 2026, terminating all lending commitments.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Mitek repaid $155.25M in Convertible Senior Notes, terminating all lending commitments. This action reflects a strategic capital allocation decision.
Mitek has increased its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance increased from 27%-30% to 29%-32%, indicating improved profitability expectations. The trajectory is delivering on the raised margin guidance.
“raises full-year fiscal 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin outlook”
Why it matters: Retail sales data can indicate consumer spending trends. This impacts Mitek's market outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales go up a lot each month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline month over month.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it signals a potential slowdown in the sector. This could impact Mitek's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median level.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median level.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 20, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Mitek Systems, Inc. (the “Company”), based upon the recommendation of the Compensation Committee of the Board, adopted an Annual Incentive Plan (the "Bonus Plan"). Pursuant to the terms of the Bonus Plan, certain full time permanent employees of the Company, including the Company’s execu…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On February 5, 2026, the Company appointed Eric Bell as the Company’s Chief Accounting Officer, effective immediately. In this position, Mr. Bell will serve as the Company's principal accounting officer. Mr. Bell has over 25 years of experience, having served as the Company's Vice President, Global Corporate Controller since December 2023. He previ…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 1, 2026, Mitek Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) repaid in full its 0.750% Convertible Senior Notes due February 1, 2026, which included $155,250,000 million in aggregate principal plus all accrued interest and terminated all lending commitments thereunder.
“Mitek repaid in full its 0.750% Convertible Senior Notes due February 1, 2026.”
“Adjusted EBITDA margin % (2) 29% - 32%”
“Adjusted EBITDA margin % (2) 27% - 30%”