Reading MGRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MGRC free→Reading MGRC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MGRC free→NASDAQIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $114.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $114 MGRC trades at 18× p/e, below its 28× p/e peer median. Our $163 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 30% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.57x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.52 → $1.46 (-3.9% / 30d). 1 raised, 3 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$92.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$269.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,487.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'fair' to 'inexpensive'.
Valuation changed. It rose to "inexpensive" from "fair." This indicates a shift in how the stock is valued compared to peers. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Risk is moderate.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Re-accelerating revenue growth could signal a shift in the maturing phase of the sector. This would support McGrath RentCorp's growth potential.
Confirms:3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector rises above 7%.
Disproves:3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector stays below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MGRC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 8, 2026, McGrath RentCorp, a California corporation (the “Company”), entered into a Third Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with (i) Bank of America, N.A., serving as Administrative Agent, Swingline Lender and L/C Issuer, (ii) BofA Securities, Inc., serving as Joint Lead Arranger and Sole Bookrunner, (iii) U.S. Bank N.A. and Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. both serving as Joint Lead Arrangers and Co-Syndication Agents, and (iv) a syndicate of othe…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Trading Companies & Distributors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MGRC McGrath RentCorp | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
URI United Rentals | — | expensive | moderate |
FAST Fastenal | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 79 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FERG FERGUSON ENTERPRISES INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | full | moderate |
SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | — | inexpensive | moderate |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company has set a revenue guidance range of $945 to $995 million for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $198.5 million in 2026-Q1. The company has reiterated its revenue guidance of $945 to $995 million for 2026, indicating a focus on growth. However, the trajectory shows limited progress towards the annual target based on Q1 results.
“For the full-year 2026, the Company currently expects: Total revenue: $945 to $995 million.”
“For the full-year 2026, the Company expects: Total revenue: $945 to $995 million.”
The company has set a capital expenditure guidance range of $180 to $200 million for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has maintained its CAPEX guidance of $180 to $200 million for 2026. This indicates a consistent focus on capital allocation for growth and expansion, though specific quarterly CAPEX figures are not provided to assess progress.
“For the full-year 2026, the Company currently expects: Gross rental equipment capital expenditures: $180 to $200 million.”
The company has set an adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $360 to $378 million for the full year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has reiterated its adjusted EBITDA guidance of $360 to $378 million for 2026. This reflects a focus on profitability, but without specific quarterly EBITDA figures, progress towards the annual target is unclear.
“For the full-year 2026, the Company currently expects: Adjusted EBITDA: $360 to $378 million.”
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant To the extent required by
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 29, 2026, McGrath RentCorp (the “Company”) announced via press release the Company’s results for its first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. This Form 8-K and the attached exhibit are provided under
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, McGrath RentCorp (the “Company”) announced via press release the Company’s results for its fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. This Form 8-K and the attached exhibit are provided under
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Retirement of President and Chief Executive Officer On February 5, 2026, McGrath RentCorp (the “Company”) announced that Joseph F. Hanna, President, Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) and a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company, informed the Company of his intention to retire as the Company’s President and CEO, effective April…
“For the full-year 2026, the Company expects: Gross rental equipment capital expenditures: $180 to $200 million.”
“For the full-year 2026, the Company expects: Adjusted EBITDA: $360 to $378 million.”