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Track MCHP free→Microchip Technology (MCHP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$95.63-4.68%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is robust, indicating that cash backs up reported profits. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, MCHP is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 11% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like NVDA and TSM.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Market cap
- $51.63B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-08-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $95.63. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$86.12consensus
Range $62.82 – $95.66
vs price: +11% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$216.02consensus
Range $150.29 – $330.21
vs price: -56% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $100 MCHP trades at 79× p/e, in line with its 70× p/e peer median. Our $90 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $94–$135. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
79.0x
peer 70.0x · own history 26.4x
Premium
1.1x peer
3.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
11%
our forecast 7%
Our fair value
$90.44
range $65.68 – $101.21
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The market is pricing in roughly 11% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
98th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 4.18x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
86th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +18.9% / 30d, n=21for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.59 → $0.70 (+18.9% / 30d). 21 raised, 0 cut, 21 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 74% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Guidance credibility
- strong
- Post-call reaction
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$199.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$394.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,444.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for the next earnings date on August 6, 2026
Why it matters: This earnings report will show how the company is doing and market trends.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows strong results with positive guidance.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows weak results with negative guidance.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MCHP yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MCHP and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting MCHP and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If MCHP raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If MCHP cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, TSM, and AVGO start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping MCHP and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-0116d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 28, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Microchip Technology Incorporated ("Microchip"), upon the recommendation from the Nominating, Governance and Sustainability Committee of the Board, appointed Mitch Little, former Senior Vice President, Worldwide Client Engagement of Microchip, as a member of the Board, effective June 1, 2026.…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.