Microchip Technology (MCHP)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-15

$73.85-0.55%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Microchip Technology’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

4.57 → 4.57 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 16 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 16; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures remain below $100 million in FY 2026	The company controls capital spending below $100 million in 2026.	Broken	Capex exceeds $100 million in FY 2026	Capital expenditures: $13.9M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: <= $100 million. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2027-Q1. Source published Aug 6, 202613,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q1. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin stays above 60%	Gross margin stays above 60%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 60%	Gross margin: 63.24% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >=62.75%. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 6, 202663.238365 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6e1d7624-8b6d-468f-914d-7b32342922b8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Non-GAAP gross margin improved from about 52.0% in 2025-Q4 to 63.8% in 2026-Q2, exceeding guidance ranges. Management consistently targets gross margin above 60%, and the financials show delivering progress with margin expansion over the period. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Operating margin near 33.75%	Profit margin is guided near 34%.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 30%	Operating margin: 22.68% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~33.75%. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 6, 202622.684717 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6e1d7624-8b6d-468f-914d-7b32342922b8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Non-GAAP gross margin improved from about 52.0% in 2025-Q4 to 63.8% in 2026-Q2, exceeding guidance ranges. Management consistently targets gross margin above 60%, and the financials show delivering progress with margin expansion over the period. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue reaches about $1.46 billion in fiscal Q4 2026	Microchip grows revenue to about $1.46 billion in Q4 2026.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.31 billion in Q4 2026	Revenue: $1.485B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.46B. Same fiscal period as the stored target. Source published Aug 6, 20261,484,700,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6e1d7624-8b6d-468f-914d-7b32342922b8. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$4.57

$4.20 → $4.57 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$7.45B

$7.20B → $7.45B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$4.20	$7,203,583,450	21 / 20
2026-07-25	$4.16	$7,187,766,172	14 / 16
2026-07-26	$4.20	$7,203,583,450	21 / 20
2026-07-27	$4.20	$7,203,583,450	21 / 20
2026-07-28	$4.20	$7,203,583,450	21 / 20
2026-07-29	$4.20	$7,203,583,450	21 / 20
2026-07-30	$4.20	$7,203,583,450	21 / 20
2026-07-31	$4.17	$7,203,339,856	14 / 15
2026-08-01	$4.17	$7,203,339,856	14 / 15
2026-08-02	$4.19	$7,198,317,570	22 / 21
2026-08-03	$4.17	$7,203,339,856	14 / 15
2026-08-04	$4.19	$7,198,317,570	22 / 21
2026-08-05	$4.17	$7,203,339,856	14 / 16
2026-08-06	$4.19	$7,198,317,570	22 / 21
2026-08-07	$4.18	$7,218,234,593	14 / 16
2026-08-08	$4.18	$7,218,234,593	14 / 16
2026-08-09	$4.42	$7,374,614,620	22 / 21
2026-08-10	$4.42	$7,374,614,620	22 / 21
2026-08-12	$4.54	$7,423,035,130	24 / 23
2026-08-13	$4.18	$7,218,234,593	14 / 16
2026-08-14	$4.18	$7,218,234,593	14 / 16
2026-08-15	$4.18	$7,218,234,593	14 / 16
2026-08-16	$4.18	$7,218,234,593	15 / 16
2026-08-17	$4.18	$7,218,234,593	15 / 16
2026-08-18	$4.18	$7,218,234,593	15 / 16
2026-08-19	$4.18	$7,218,234,593	15 / 16
2026-08-20	$4.58	$7,450,976,533	16 / 18
2026-08-21	$4.58	$7,450,976,533	16 / 18
2026-08-22	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-08-23	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-08-24	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-08-25	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-08-26	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-08-27	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-08-28	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-08-29	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-08-30	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-08-31	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-01	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-02	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-03	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-04	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-05	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-06	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-07	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-08	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-09	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-10	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-11	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-12	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-13	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-14	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-15	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-16	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-17	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-18	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-19	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-20	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-21	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-22	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-23	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-24	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-25	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-26	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-27	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-28	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-29	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-09-30	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-10-01	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 18
2026-10-02	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19
2026-10-03	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19
2026-10-04	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19
2026-10-05	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19
2026-10-06	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19
2026-10-07	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19
2026-10-08	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19
2026-10-09	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19
2026-10-10	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19
2026-10-11	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19
2026-10-12	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19
2026-10-13	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19
2026-10-14	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19
2026-10-15	$4.57	$7,447,977,599	16 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	20	5	1
2026-06-01	20	6	1
2026-07-01	19	6	0
2026-08-01	20	6	0
2026-09-01	20	6	0
2026-10-01	20	6	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures remain below $100 million in FY 2026Published status: Broken
Operating margin near 33.75%Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-32.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Microchip Technology outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and margin maintenance. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance despite a medium confidence level.

What's priced into Microchip Technology

The market currently prices MCHP at a premium compared to its peers, indicating an expensive valuation. There is an expectations gap, suggesting that the market may not fully account for potential future growth given the company's recent performance.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management has shown strong execution in driving revenue growth and maintaining gross margins above 60%. However, there is a moderate risk, as recent industry trends show some peers missing earnings expectations, which could impact MCHP.

What Microchip Technology hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including the Fed's interest rate decisions and the performance of sector leaders like NVDA and TSM. Additionally, any guidance cuts from MCHP could negatively affect market sentiment.