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MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCapital MarketsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Watch· this month
$14.64+3.98%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and compared with sector peers, it is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 10% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-15
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Capital Markets
- Market cap
- $5.37B
- Employees
- 266
- IPO date
- 2010-12-16
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $14.64. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$16.30consensus
Range $11.43 – $20.44
vs price: -10% below
Method agreement — · 4 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$65.01consensus
Range $65.01 – $65.01
vs price: -77% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-year—
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $15 MARA trades at 21× p/e, below its 29× p/e peer median. Our $16 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $7.00–$17. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
20.6x
peer 28.5x · own history 17.3x
Premium
0.7x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
-10%
our forecast 100%
Our fair value
$16.30
range $11.18 – $20.44
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 10% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
24th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted 0.41x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +41.2% / 30d, n=3for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.51 → $-0.30 (+41.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 54% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -11.7% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): tailwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: weak
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- weak
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$340.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$784.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,053.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-15
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 11d
Watch for the closing of the Long Ridge acquisition
Why it matters: Closing this deal will enhance MARA's power capacity and cash flow. It is a key step in their strategy to build a digital infrastructure campus.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The deal will close in H2 2026. All regulatory approvals are secured.
Disproves:The deal does not close. This is due to regulatory issues or unmet conditions.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MARA yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for MARA and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If the sector bellwether CLSK keeps beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting MARA and other Tech names. Worth watching CLSK for early signals.
- If MARA raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If MARA cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If the sector bellwether CLSK starts missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping MARA and other Tech names could fade. Watch CLSK for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-111mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 11, 2026, MARA Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a shareholder letter announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The Company also issued a press release announcing its earnings webcast and conference call to be held on May 11, 2026. The full text of the shareholder letter and press release are attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, and are incorporated herein by reference. The…
Earnings preannouncementnegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-7.4 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-15
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.