MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)

NASDAQInformation TechnologyFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$7.02-3.17%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge MARA Holdings, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	208.54M
EPS	—	-0.363
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	766.7M
EPS	—	-4.831
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	962.01M
EPS	—	-0.964

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Grow energized hashrate 25-33% YoY to support mining revenue	Bitcoin mining power rose 33% year over year to 72.2 EH/s in Q1 2026.	Intact	energized hashrate falls below 60 EH/s next year	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Bitcoin mining remains core to MARA's business, generating cash flow and operational flexibility. Energized hashrate grew 22% from 57.4 EH/s in Q2 2025 to 70.3 EH/s in Q2 2026, while cost per petahash per day improved 4%. Management continues fleet modernization and power management efforts. The trajectory shows delivery of operational improvements consistent with management's stated commitment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Advance AI and HPC infrastructure with Starwood partnership	The company is shifting toward AI and digital infrastructure with Starwood partnership.	Improving	Starwood partnership stalls or fails to develop AI capacity	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Starwood partnership aims to convert MARA's power portfolio into AI and enterprise digital infrastructure, targeting 1 GW near-term IT capacity with a pathway to 2.5 GW. Management reports active permitting, site preparations, and tenant discussions with major hyperscalers, expecting to sign leases by year-end. The trajectory shows ongoing progress and execution consistent with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Add 505 MW power capacity and $144M annual EBITDA from Long Ridge	MARA is growing power capacity with the Long Ridge deal adding 505 MW.	Intact	Long Ridge power capacity or EBITDA falls below 400 MW or $100 million	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management announced acquisition of Long Ridge with 505 MW capacity and rights to a 2 GW powered land site in Matagorda County, expected to expand total powered land portfolio to 4.8 GW. These acquisitions aim to build premier AI data center campuses with immediate cash flow and long-term growth potential. The trajectory shows active execution and expansion consistent with management's stated strategic acquisition focus. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Reduce convertible debt and maintain capital discipline	A supporting condition in MARA Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Retire ~30% convertible debt and keep disciplined capital use.	Intact	debt reduction stalls or capital spending becomes undisciplined	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management retired about 30% of convertible debt at a 9% discount and reduced workforce by 15%, yielding $12 million in annualized savings. These actions aim to strengthen financial flexibility and capital discipline. The trajectory shows execution of balance sheet strengthening consistent with management's stated priorities. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.96B

$0.89B → $0.96B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$890,408,580	1 / 8
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$864,133,580	1 / 8
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$781,878,580	1 / 8
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-17	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-18	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-19	Unavailable	$1,022,613,564	3 / 6
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$925,652,822	3 / 6
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$925,652,822	4 / 6
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-29	Unavailable	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-30	Unavailable	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-08-31	Unavailable	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-09-01	Unavailable	$942,290,558	4 / 6
2026-09-02	Unavailable	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-03	Unavailable	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-04	Unavailable	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-05	Unavailable	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-06	Unavailable	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-07	Unavailable	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-08	Unavailable	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-09	Unavailable	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-10	Unavailable	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-11	Unavailable	$928,723,891	4 / 6
2026-09-12	Unavailable	$961,998,976	4 / 6
2026-09-13	Unavailable	$961,998,976	3 / 6
2026-09-14	Unavailable	$961,998,976	3 / 6
2026-09-15	Unavailable	$948,713,335	3 / 6
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$948,713,335	3 / 6
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$948,713,335	4 / 6
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$948,713,335	4 / 6
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$948,713,335	4 / 6
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$948,713,335	4 / 7
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$948,713,335	4 / 7
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$948,713,335	4 / 7
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$948,713,335	4 / 7
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$948,713,335	4 / 7
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$948,713,335	4 / 7
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$948,299,113	4 / 7
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$948,299,113	4 / 7
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$948,299,113	4 / 7
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$948,299,113	4 / 7
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$948,299,113	4 / 7
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$948,299,486	4 / 7
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$948,299,486	4 / 7
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$948,292,819	4 / 7
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$962,014,819	4 / 7
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$962,014,819	4 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	5	1
2026-06-01	8	5	1
2026-07-01	8	5	1
2026-08-01	8	4	1
2026-09-01	10	4	2
2026-10-01	9	4	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Piper SandlerOct 20 · prior Jul 17

$13.00 → $11.00-15.4%

Morgan StanleyOct 9 · prior Sep 18

$11.00 → $10.00-9.1%

$0$7.15$14.30

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Grow energized hashrate 25-33% YoY to support mining revenueDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Advance AI and HPC infrastructure with Starwood partnershipDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Add 505 MW power capacity and $144M annual EBITDA from Long RidgeDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Reduce convertible debt and maintain capital disciplineDirect metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-65.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

MARA Holdings, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk, loss-making business with exposure to Bitcoin mining and a developing AI infrastructure strategy. Its mining operations show some improvement, while progress on acquisitions and the Starwood partnership remains mixed; the current thesis state is watch.

What's priced into MARA Holdings, Inc.

MARA is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and the expectations gap is negative. The evidence labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, so it does not point to unusually fragile expectations, though weak performance relative to its industry cohort remains a concern.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, recent results have been weak, with an earnings miss and a history of erratic surprises; a guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk. Over the multi-year view, mining capacity and cost efficiency have improved, while acquisitions and AI infrastructure work could broaden the business if management converts plans into operating capacity and leases.

What MARA Holdings, Inc. hinges on

A guidance cut would add pressure to the already weak operating picture. On the favorable side, Fed rate cuts or continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwether CLSK could support the sector backdrop, while MARA’s own longer-term progress hinges on delivering AI capacity and securing tenants.