MARA Holdings, Inc. (MARA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-09
$11.92+0.76%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-09
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
MARA is growing power capacity with the Long Ridge deal adding 505 MW. The deal adds about $144 million in yearly adjusted EBITDA. Bitcoin mining power rose 33% year over year to 72.2 EH/s in Q1 2026. The company is shifting toward AI and digital infrastructure with Starwood partnership.
MARA lost money in Q1 2026 with EPS at -$3.31. Revenue fell 18% year over year. CEO and CFO sold stock, raising leadership concerns. Regulatory issues could slow power plant plans.
The price is about 48% below our fair value near $24. Analysts expect about 3% revenue growth. Our fair value is well above the Street median of $9.
Breaks if: energized hashrate falls below 60 EH/s next year
Continue Bitcoin mining operations to generate cash flow, provide operational flexibility, and support infrastructure development.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is currently navigating a volatile management landscape and has shown mixed execution on its strategic priorities.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that investors are not anticipating significant improvements in performance. Valuation is at a premium compared to peers, indicating that some growth potential is already reflected in the current setup.
Fundamentals are likely to remain weak in the near term, given the recent earnings miss and a high probability of missing future earnings expectations. However, the company is making progress in its core operations, particularly in Bitcoin mining, which may provide some stability.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance, potential Fed rate cuts that could benefit tech stocks, and the performance of sector peers like CLSK. Any negative guidance or continued earnings misses could significantly impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company has a partnership with Starwood. This supports its goal to develop AI and IT infrastructure. However, it recently missed earnings expectations. This raises concerns about its core Bitcoin mining operations. Overall, the mixed signals create uncertainty about the company's future.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Bitcoin mining remains core to MARA's business, generating cash flow and operational flexibility. Energized hashrate grew 22% from 57.4 EH/s in Q2 2025 to 70.3 EH/s in Q2 2026, while cost per petahash per day improved 4%. Management continues fleet modernization and power management efforts. The trajectory shows delivery of operational improvements consistent with management's stated commitment.
“Bitcoin mining continues to play an important strategic role, generating cash flow and providing operational flexibility.”
“Bitcoin mining is the operational foundation, enabling monetization of power assets and providing operational discipline.”
“MARA's sites operate Bitcoin mining and AI compute, allowing workload toggling to preserve economics across cycles.”
Breaks if: Starwood partnership stalls or fails to develop AI capacity
Jointly develop, finance, and operate digital infrastructure projects to convert power assets into AI and enterprise compute capacity.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The Starwood partnership aims to convert MARA's power portfolio into AI and enterprise digital infrastructure, targeting 1 GW near-term IT capacity with a pathway to 2.5 GW. Management reports active permitting, site preparations, and tenant discussions with major hyperscalers, expecting to sign leases by year-end. The trajectory shows ongoing progress and execution consistent with stated goals.
“Working alongside Starwood, lease discussions are progressing across multiple sites with confidence to sign at least one lease before year-end.”
“Starwood partnership advanced from announcement to execution, with ~90% of non-hosted capacity under consideration for AI site conversion.”
“Announced strategic agreement with Starwood to jointly develop and operate digital infrastructure projects across MARA's power-rich portfolio.”
Breaks if: Long Ridge power capacity or EBITDA falls below 400 MW or $100 million
Acquire and develop powered land sites and data center campuses to grow digital infrastructure capacity and AI compute capabilities.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management announced acquisition of Long Ridge with 505 MW capacity and rights to a 2 GW powered land site in Matagorda County, expected to expand total powered land portfolio to 4.8 GW. These acquisitions aim to build premier AI data center campuses with immediate cash flow and long-term growth potential. The trajectory shows active execution and expansion consistent with management's stated strategic acquisition focus.
“Acquired rights to a 2 GW powered land site in Matagorda County, Texas, expanding power portfolio up to 4.8 GW.”
“Announced definitive agreement to acquire Long Ridge, a 505 MW flexible compute campus with immediate cash flow expected.”
“Announced strategic partnership with Starwood to convert and expand MARA sites into next generation digital infrastructure.”
Breaks if: debt reduction stalls or capital spending becomes undisciplined
Strengthen balance sheet by retiring convertible debt and managing capital allocation prudently.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management retired about 30% of convertible debt at a 9% discount and reduced workforce by 15%, yielding $12 million in annualized savings. These actions aim to strengthen financial flexibility and capital discipline. The trajectory shows execution of balance sheet strengthening consistent with management's stated priorities.
“Strengthened balance sheet by retiring ~30% of outstanding convertible debt at a discount of 9% to par value.”
“Realigned business operations and reduced workforce by 15%, providing combined annualized savings of $12 million.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MARA's performance will depend on execution against its strategic goals and external market conditions. Not investment advice.