Reading LUNR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LUNR free→Reading LUNR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LUNR free→NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 216% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact LUNR's outlook. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $25.76. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $26 LUNR trades at 8× p/s — 2.3× the 3× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $11 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $27–$75. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 129% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.81x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.03 → $-0.09 (-189.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 39.2% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$456.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$956.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,363.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that contracts are successful. This can boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Revenue from strategic contracts goes up by more than 10% each quarter.
Disproves:Revenue from strategic contracts goes down or stays the same each quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Stock crash indicates potential operational or market issues.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Sales Agreement In connection with Intuitive Machines, Inc.’s (the “Company”) Registration Statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-296442) (the “Registration Statement”), which became effective on June 2, 2026, which included a base prospectus and a prospectus supplement relating to the offer and sale, from time to time through the Agents (as defined below), of shares of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value $0.0001 per share, for aggregate gros…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$27.00 – $75.00 (median $38.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LUNR Intuitive Machines, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | expensive | high |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on securing strategic contracts to drive revenue growth.
Focus on improving operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Aim to enhance cash flow from operations through better working capital management.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company can invest and pay debts. This is key for stability.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by more than 10% quarter over quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations goes down or stays the same each quarter.
Why it matters: Strong performance from peers can indicate market trends. This can affect LUNR's outlook.
Confirms one read:At least two peers show revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:At least two peers report revenue decline year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is controlling costs well. This can bring in investors.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by more than 5% each quarter.
Disproves:Operating income goes down or does not change each quarter.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The full text of the Company's press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as a…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 14, 2026, Intuitive Machines, LLC (“Buyer”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Intuitive Machines, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into a Share Purchase Agreement (the “SPA”) with Goonhilly Holdings Limited (“Seller”), pursuant to which Buyer agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of Goonhilly Earth Station Limited (“Goonhilly Earth Station”), a ground station and satellite communications company incorporated in England and Wales…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 19, 2026, Intuitive Machines, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended December 31, 2025. The full text of the Company's press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this "Current Report") and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished in this Current Report (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” f…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 27, 2026 (the “ Closing Date ”), Intuitive Machines, Inc. (the “ Company ”), a Delaware corporation, completed the previously announced issuance and sale of shares of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “ Common Stock ”) at a price of $15.12 per share for an aggregate purchase price of $175 million to certain institutional investors or their affiliates (collectively, the “ Investors ”) led by global insti…