Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR)
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
$14.94-4.72%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Cash flow from operations improves toward positive: OCF -$54.8M vs target breakeven; TTM OCF -$54.8M.
Intuitive Machines is growing revenue fast, aiming for about $950M in 2026. It has strong NASA contracts supporting this growth. The company is focused on improving its operating income and cash flow. Recent acquisitions and contract wins show progress toward its goals.
The company is still losing money and cash flow is worsening. Operating income declined from -$15.4M to -$39.2M recently. The stock has sold off sharply, reflecting risks in execution and profitability. Revenue growth may slow if contracts do not materialize as expected.
The market prices in about 54% revenue growth and a share price about 22% below our fair value near $23. Our fair value is well below the Street median, reflecting caution on profitability and cash flow. We see risk that growth and margin targets may not be met.
Breaks if: Cash flow loss worsens beyond -$55M in FY26
Improve cash generation from operating activities to support strategic investments and financial stability.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the industrials sector. The company is currently facing high risks and volatile management, but it has shown strong revenue growth and strategic acquisitions that could support its long-term thesis.
The market seems to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that investors are cautious about LUNR's performance. The valuation suggests a durable premium compared to peers, but this comes with a low model confidence.
Management is focused on increasing revenue and achieving positive adjusted EBITDA, which could lead to improved financial performance over time. However, recent results have been weak, and the company has missed earnings expectations, highlighting potential challenges ahead.
The future performance of LUNR will depend on its ability to maintain revenue growth and successfully integrate recent acquisitions. Additionally, the company's trajectory could be influenced by the performance of sector bellwethers, which may impact overall market sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Management reiterated revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion. This supports expectations for future revenue growth. However, the company missed earnings estimates in Q2. This raised concerns about its financial performance. An analyst lowered their estimate from $41 to $39. This indicates a slight decrease in valuation expectations.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities was negative $7.3 million in 2025-Q4 and worsened to negative $54.8 million in 2026-Q1, with a strong cash balance of $367 million at 2026-Q2 due to financing and investments. The trajectory shows mixed progress with ongoing cash use but strong liquidity.
“Ended Q2 with a strong cash balance of $367 million; investments made in inventory and ground station network.”
“Net cash used in operating activities was $54.8 million; investments in property and equipment and acquisitions noted.”
“Cash from operating activities was negative $7.3 million; focus on improving cash flow.”
Breaks if: Operating loss worsens beyond -$40M in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $900M in FY26
Focus on winning and executing large government and commercial contracts to drive revenue growth and backlog expansion.
In the next 1 to 3 years, LUNR's success will hinge on management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.