Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR)

NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$10.52+0.67%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Intuitive Machines, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	287.06M
EPS	—	-0.054
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$900M–$1B	925.8M
EPS	—	-0.649
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.14B
EPS	—	-0.211

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash flow from operations improves toward positive	The company is focused on improving its operating income and cash flow.	Broken	Cash flow loss worsens beyond -$55M in FY26	Cash from operations: $-59.802M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash flow loss narrows from -$54.8M in Q1 2026 toward breakeven by end of 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026-59,802,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income improves toward breakeven	The company is focused on improving its operating income and cash flow.	Broken	Operating loss worsens beyond -$40M in FY26	Operating income: $-47.136M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows from -$39.2M in Q1 2026 toward breakeven by end of 2026. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026-47,136,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1afd9b85-0362-433b-8ddb-e1c21a4bb96d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $950M in 2026	A primary condition in Intuitive Machines, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$950M.	Intact	Revenue falls below $900M in FY26	Revenue: $206.168M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$950M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 13, 2026206,168,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1afd9b85-0362-433b-8ddb-e1c21a4bb96d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.15B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	$1,150,706,280	1 / 7
2026-07-25	Unavailable	$1,150,706,280	1 / 7
2026-07-26	Unavailable	$1,150,706,280	1 / 7
2026-07-27	Unavailable	$1,154,460,494	4 / 6
2026-07-28	Unavailable	$1,154,460,494	4 / 6
2026-07-29	Unavailable	$1,150,706,280	1 / 7
2026-07-30	Unavailable	$1,150,706,280	1 / 7
2026-07-31	Unavailable	$1,150,706,280	1 / 7
2026-08-01	Unavailable	$1,144,334,875	4 / 6
2026-08-02	Unavailable	$1,150,706,280	1 / 7
2026-08-03	Unavailable	$1,157,225,490	1 / 7
2026-08-04	Unavailable	$1,157,225,490	1 / 7
2026-08-05	Unavailable	$1,150,039,125	4 / 6
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,150,039,125	4 / 6
2026-08-07	Unavailable	$1,150,039,125	4 / 6
2026-08-08	Unavailable	$1,157,225,490	1 / 7
2026-08-09	Unavailable	$1,157,225,490	1 / 7
2026-08-10	Unavailable	$1,150,039,125	4 / 6
2026-08-12	Unavailable	$1,157,225,490	1 / 7
2026-08-13	Unavailable	$1,157,225,490	1 / 7
2026-08-14	Unavailable	$1,150,039,125	4 / 6
2026-08-15	Unavailable	$1,150,039,125	4 / 6
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	7	1	1
2026-06-01	7	1	1
2026-07-01	7	1	1
2026-08-01	8	1	1
2026-09-01	8	1	1
2026-10-01	9	0	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

MacquarieOct 16

$25.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$13.75$27.50

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash flow from operations improves toward positivePublished status: Broken
Operating income improves toward breakevenPublished status: Broken
Revenue reaches about $950M in 2026Revenue: $206.168M

Next proof point

Nov 12, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

3.8%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-77.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Intuitive Machines, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk space infrastructure growth story, not a proven compounder: LUNR is expanding through contracts and acquisitions but remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is on watch, and the recent signal shifted from mixed to cautious.

What's priced into Intuitive Machines, Inc.

The valuation model describes the setup as justified, with no identified fragility flags, but estimates are low confidence. LUNR carries a premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting market expectations may be difficult to meet.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue rose from $186.7 million in Q1 2026 to $206.2 million in Q2, and awards and backlog provide evidence of demand; full-year revenue guidance remains $900 million to $1 billion. Yet the operating loss widened to $47.1 million in Q2, the company missed its most recent quarter, and management’s positive adjusted EBITDA goal has mixed evidence so far.

What Intuitive Machines, Inc. hinges on

The multi-year case depends on converting awards and backlog into revenue while improving operating results and managing recently closed acquisitions. Near-term guidance is a key risk, while earnings and guidance from sector bellwethers could either support or weaken the broader industrials backdrop.