Reading LSF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LSF free→Reading LSF? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LSF free→AMEXConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is high, compounded by a sector backdrop that presents a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 32% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If LSF cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.70. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.70 LSF trades at 1× p/s — 1.4× the 1× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $3.47 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 32% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated weak grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.96x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.05 → $-0.08 (-60.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$311.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$729.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,299.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report gives insight into retail sales trends. Strong sales could boost Laird Superfood's outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase by more than 0.5% month over month in the report.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decrease or grow less than 0.5% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Achieve revenue guidance of $138-$148M for 2026
Earnings beat supports revenue guidance for 2026.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 14, 2026, Laird Superfood, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. The press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 hereto and is incorporated by reference herein. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”), as amended, or otherwise subjec…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2023-Q1, 2023-Q2, 2023-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Packaged Foods & Meats.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LSF Laird Superfood Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 33 of 100 | full | high |
MDLZ Mondelez International | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
HSY Hershey Company (The) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 89 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KHC Kraft Heinz | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSN Tyson Foods | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 77 of 100 | fair | moderate |
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated volatile grew net income 42% of the time over the next year (vs 51% for the rest of the cohort, n=368).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on completing the acquisitions of Terrasoul and Navitas to expand market presence.
Aim to achieve consolidated net sales in the range of $138 to $148 million for fiscal year 2026.
Target adjusted EBITDA in the range of $8 to $12 million for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may signal a recovery in demand. This could improve the company's financial health.
Confirms:Laird Superfood's revenue growth turns positive and exceeds 4% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains below 4% year over year or continues to decline.
Advances: Achieve revenue guidance of $138-$148M for 2026
Acquisitions align with projected revenue growth.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 18, 2026, Mr. Doug Behrens notified Laird Superfood, Inc. (the “Company”) of his decision to resign from the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of the Company, effective immediately, for personal reasons. Mr. Behrens’s resignation was not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company’s operations, polici…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As discussed in the Introductory Note and Item 1.01, which are incorporated by reference into this Item 2.01, on the Closing Date, the Company completed the Terrasoul Acquisition pursuant to the Terrasoul Acquisition Agreement.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Terrasoul Acquisition Agreement As discussed in the Introductory Note, on the Closing Date, the Company entered into the Terrasoul Acquisition Agreement, pursuant to which, among other things, and subject to certain limitations set forth therein, the Company acquired from the Seller all of the Company Membership Interests (as defined in the Terrasoul Acquisition Agreement) which constitute all of the issued and outstanding equity interests of Terras…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Concurrently with the execution of the Terrasoul Acquisition Agreement, the Company entered into an Advisory Agreement (the “ Advisory Agreement ”) with DB, an indirect beneficial owner of 32.33% of the issued and outstanding Company Membership Interests as of immediately prior to the Terrasoul Acquisition, pursuant to which DB agreed to provide th…