Reading LSCC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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Track LSCC free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 86% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $148.97. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $149 LSCC trades at 34× p/s — 2.8× the 12× p/s peer median, and above its own 21× history. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $80 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts: $130–$175. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 86% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 17%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 9.73x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.38 → $0.44 (+16.9% / 30d). 11 raised, 0 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.6% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 2 guided quarters · 0.0% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$266.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$470.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,933.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
risk label changed from 'elevated' to 'moderate'.
Risk changed. Risk fell from elevated to moderate. Earnings quality remains robust. Management is neutral. The macro backdrop is current and reflects a heating market cycle.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this goal shows strong demand and growth in the business.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported at or above $175 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue reported below $175 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Acquisition financing may strain balance sheet and growth potential.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 1, 2026, the Company’s board of directors appointed Lorenzo A. Flores, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer as Principal Accounting Officer of the Company.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$130.00 – $175.00 (median $145.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-05-22
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Semiconductors.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LSCC Lattice Semiconductor | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. | — | — | moderate |
AVGO Broadcom | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 74 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
MU Micron Technology | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Continue efforts to improve gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Focus on increasing operating income through revenue growth and cost management.
Why it matters: A gross margin above 70% shows strong profits and good cost control.
Confirms:Q2 2026 gross margin reported at or above 70%.
Disproves:Q2 2026 gross margin reported below 70%.
Why it matters: This acquisition will improve Lattice's products and its place in the market.
Confirms:The AMI acquisition will close on time in Q3 2026.
Disproves:Delay or failure to close the AMI acquisition.
Why it matters: Big changes in operating costs could affect profits and cash flow.
Confirms one read:Q2 2026 operating costs are expected to be between $64 million and $67 million.
Confirms the other:Q2 2026 operating costs are outside the $64 million to $67 million range.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the Company's financial results for the quarter ended April 4, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished (not filed) as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or incorporated by reference in any filing u…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 4, 2026, Lattice Semiconductor Corporation, a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), certain of its wholly owned subsidiaries, AMI TopCo, Inc. (“AMI”) and THL AMI Aggregator, LP (“THL”) (solely in its capacity as the representative of securityholders of AMI) entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”). The Merger Agreement provides, among other things, that on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein,…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information contained in
Regulation FD Disclosure. On May 4, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the Company's entry into the Merger Agreement. A copy of the press release is furnished (not filed) as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information set forth under this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.2, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Exchange Act, or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act or the Exchange Act, except as…