Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$96.19-0.22%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Lattice Semiconductor’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+1.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.21 → 3.25 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
FPGA revenue	$210M–$230M	—
Operating expenses	$83M–$90Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	292.8M
EPS	—	0.644
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	920.3M
EPS	—	2.137
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.34B
EPS	—	3.246

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Manage acquisition financing and debt levels	A supporting condition in Lattice Semiconductor's published investment case. The stated target is No material increase in debt risk or covenant breaches.	Intact	Material covenant breach or credit downgrade reported	Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Gross margin near 70%	A primary condition in Lattice Semiconductor's published investment case. The stated target is ~70% gross margin.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 68% next quarter	Gross margin: 70.29% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~70% gross margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202670.286803 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c1d240e4-d83f-445c-be90-2dafd08d796c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating income increases significantly	Operating income rose from $7M to $26M in one year.	Improving	Operating income falls below $20M next 4 quarters	Operating income: $22.353M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $26M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202622,353,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c1d240e4-d83f-445c-be90-2dafd08d796c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows at least 36% year over year	Lattice Semiconductor grows revenue about 42% year over year.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 36% next 4 quarters	Revenue growth: 62.2% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=36% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202662.198417 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 4, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: c1d240e4-d83f-445c-be90-2dafd08d796c. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.25

$2.37 → $3.25 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$1.34B

$0.94B → $1.34B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.37	$940,878,429	7 / 8
2026-07-25	$2.37	$940,878,429	7 / 8
2026-07-26	$2.38	$944,594,649	7 / 8
2026-07-27	$2.38	$944,594,649	7 / 8
2026-07-28	$2.38	$944,594,649	7 / 8
2026-07-29	$2.38	$944,594,649	7 / 8
2026-07-30	$2.38	$944,594,649	7 / 8
2026-07-31	$2.38	$944,594,649	7 / 7
2026-08-01	$2.38	$944,594,649	7 / 7
2026-08-02	$2.38	$944,594,649	7 / 7
2026-08-03	$2.38	$944,594,649	7 / 7
2026-08-04	$2.38	$944,594,649	7 / 7
2026-08-05	$2.38	$944,594,649	7 / 7
2026-08-06	$2.38	$944,594,649	7 / 7
2026-08-07	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	7 / 8
2026-08-16	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	7 / 8
2026-08-17	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	7 / 8
2026-08-18	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	7 / 8
2026-08-19	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	7 / 8
2026-08-20	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$3.21	$1,333,286,768	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-08-27	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-08-28	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-08-29	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-08-30	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-08-31	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-01	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-02	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-03	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-04	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-05	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-06	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-07	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-08	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-09	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-10	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-11	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-12	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-13	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-14	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-15	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-16	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-17	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-18	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-19	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-20	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-21	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-22	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-23	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-24	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-25	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-26	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-27	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-28	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-29	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-09-30	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-10-01	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-10-02	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-10-03	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-10-04	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-10-05	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-10-06	$3.21	$1,333,495,478	9 / 9
2026-10-07	$3.21	$1,334,843,851	10 / 10
2026-10-08	$3.21	$1,334,843,851	10 / 10
2026-10-09	$3.21	$1,334,843,851	10 / 10
2026-10-10	$3.21	$1,334,843,851	10 / 10
2026-10-11	$3.21	$1,334,843,851	10 / 10
2026-10-12	$3.21	$1,334,843,851	10 / 10
2026-10-13	$3.21	$1,334,843,851	10 / 10
2026-10-14	$3.21	$1,334,843,851	10 / 10
2026-10-15	$3.21	$1,334,843,851	10 / 10
2026-10-16	$3.21	$1,334,845,801	10 / 10
2026-10-17	$3.21	$1,334,845,801	10 / 10
2026-10-18	$3.21	$1,334,845,801	10 / 10
2026-10-19	$3.21	$1,334,845,801	10 / 10
2026-10-20	$3.21	$1,334,869,087	10 / 10
2026-10-21	$3.21	$1,334,869,087	10 / 10
2026-10-22	$3.21	$1,334,869,087	10 / 10
2026-10-23	$3.25	$1,341,654,801	10 / 11
2026-10-24	$3.25	$1,341,654,801	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Sell*
2026-05-01	13	1
2026-06-01	13	1
2026-07-01	12	1
2026-08-01	12	1
2026-09-01	12	1
2026-10-01	13	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Manage acquisition financing and debt levelsQualitative condition
Gross margin near 70%Gross margin: 70.29%
Operating income increases significantlyOperating income: $22.353M
Revenue grows at least 36% year over yearRevenue growth: 62.2%

Next proof point

Nov 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-38.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Lattice Semiconductor outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

LSCC is a growth-oriented semiconductor business with a durable premium in its valuation, rather than a turnaround or deep-value case. The multi-year view is intact, but confidence is medium and risk is elevated as management execution has been volatile.

What's priced into Lattice Semiconductor

The shares carry a 1.6-times premium versus peers, which the evidence describes as justified by durable strengths. Still, the expectations gap is negative, and the model confidence is low, so the valuation leaves limited room for weaker execution.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term revenue momentum is strong: revenue rose from $170.9 million in Q1 2026 to $201.1 million in Q2, and management reported record design wins. The $1 billion annual run-rate goal has not yet been demonstrated in the supplied results, AMI integration progress is not quantified, and the latest quarter was an earnings miss.

What Lattice Semiconductor hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on revenue growth continuing and management translating design wins, the AMI acquisition, and product expansion into measurable results. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easier rates or continued strength from major technology-sector companies could support the sector backdrop, but these are uncertain factors.