Reading LOAR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LOAR free→Reading LOAR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LOAR free→
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 165% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This means it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 4 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $67.88. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $69 LOAR trades at 0× p/s, below its 3× p/s peer median. Our $26 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $75–$98. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 167% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted -28.01x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.31 (+57.6% / 30d). 5 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$215.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$420.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,891.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into LOAR's financial health and future outlook.
Confirms one read:LOAR announces an earnings date with positive guidance or results.
Confirms the other:The earnings date announcement has bad news or weak results.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LOAR yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$75.00 – $98.00 (median $90.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-10
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Aerospace & Defense.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LOAR LOAR HOLDINGS INC | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 55 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
GE GE Aerospace | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
RTX RTX Corporation | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | fair | moderate |
BA Boeing | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 23 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
LMT Lockheed Martin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has increased revenue guidance for 2026 to between $645M and $655M.
Management aims to maintain an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 40% for 2026.
Management has adjusted diluted EPS guidance for 2026 to between $0.54 and $0.59.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it may show LOAR will do better.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the industrials sector rises above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth in the industrials sector remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Interest rate changes can affect LOAR's cost of capital and market conditions.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows the economy is strong.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers interest rates. This shows the economy is weak.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can impact LOAR's market and demand outlook.
Confirms one read:Retail sales go up a lot compared to last month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline or show weak growth compared to the previous month.
and in the accompanying Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall they be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously disclosed in a Current Report on Form 8-K filed by the Registrant with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 7, 2025, Loar Group , a wholly owned subsidiary of the Registrant, entered into the Purchase Agreement with Sellers, pursuant to which it agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding equity interests of LMB. Founded over 60 years ago, LMB is a global specialty player in the design and production of…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously disclosed in a Current Report on Form 8-K filed by the Registrant with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on March 7, 2025, Loar Group , a wholly owned subsidiary of the Registrant, entered into the Purchase Agreement with Sellers, pursuant to which it agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding equity interests of LMB. Founded over 60 years ago, LMB is a global specialty player in the design and production of…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On December 23, 2025, Loar Holdings Inc. (the “ Registrant, ” “ we ,” “ us ” or “ our ”), Loar Group Inc. (“ Loar Group ”), certain subsidiary guarantors, certain lenders, First Eagle Alternative Credit, LLC, as administrative agent for the lenders and as collateral agent for the secured parties, and Citibank, N.A., as the revolving administrative agent, entered into the Nineteenth Amendment to Credit Agreement (the " Credit Agreement Amendment " an…